改进GRA-TOPSIS模型在装配式建筑施工风险评估中的应用  

Application of improved GRA-TOPSIS model in risk assessment of prefabricated building construction

作　　者：辛酉阳[1] 杨德磊[1] 方前程[1] XIN Youyang;YANG Delei;FANG Qiancheng(School of Architectural Engineering,Huanghuai University,Zhumadian 463000,Henan,China)

机构地区：[1]黄淮学院建筑工程学院,河南驻马店463000

出　　处：《安全与环境学报》2023年第7期2212-2222,共11页Journal of Safety and Environment

基　　金：河南省科技攻关计划项目(222102320320,222102230113,222102320164);河南省高等学校重点科研项目(22B560009)。

摘　　要：为使装配式建筑施工风险评估模型更科学,降低装配式建筑施工事故发生率,装配式建筑施工风险评估具有复杂性、随机性、模糊性特点,提出了基于改进GRA-TOPSIS的装配式建筑施工风险综合评价模型。首先,从人员、物料、技术、管理和环境5个方面,选取了18个典型影响因素,构建了装配式建筑施工风险综合评价指标体系,并确定指标分级标准;其次,借助区间层次分析法、改进CRITIC法和博弈论分别计算指标主观权重、客观权重和综合权重;引入盲数理论,对专家赋值进行处理,合理确定各指标得分,通过计算灰色关联贴近度,实现装配式建筑施工风险综合评价。最后,将建立的综合评价模型应用于5个装配式建筑施工风险评估中,得到了各个项目施工风险等级及排名,将评估结果与物元可拓和云模型评估结果对比,并基于雷达图法进行装配式建筑施工风险差异分析。研究表明,评价模型结果合理可靠,为风险评估工作提供了新思路。To make the risk assessment of prefabricated building construction more scientific,and reduce the incidence of construction accidents,a new comprehensive evaluation model based on the improved GRA-TOPSIS was established in light of the complexity,randomness,and fuzziness of construction risk assessment.For this purpose,we first made a thorough analysis of the chief factors affecting the construction safety of prefabricated buildings,mainly including the following 18 factors:risk awareness of construction humans,technical level of operators,quality of prefabricated components,the rationality of construction scheme design,safety protection measures,construction of safety management system,construction site,and surrounding environment,etc.A comprehensive evaluation index system was constructed based on five aspects,such as human,material,technology,management,and environment.All of the factors mentioned above should be categorized into 4 levels.Secondly,it is also worth mentioning that,in the given paper,we managed to interval analytic hierarchy process and improve the critical method for determining the subjective and objective weights for each index,and introduced the game theory to find the comprehensive weights of each index.The blind number theory was applied to overcome the blindness and uncertainty of expert index assignments.Accordingly,we can work out the comprehensive risk assessment value on the grey correlation closeness.Finally,the comprehensive evaluation model based on game theory and improved CRA-TOPSIS was applied to evaluate the construction risk assessment of five prefabricated buildings,the evaluation results of the model were compared with the evaluation results of matter-element extension and cloud model,and the risk difference of prefabricated buildings was analyzed based on radar chart method.The research shows that the results of the evaluation model established in this paper are reasonable and reliable,which provides a new idea for risk assessment.

关 键 词：安全工程 装配式建筑 施工风险 灰色关联分析(GRA) 逼近理想解(TOPSIS) 

分 类 号：X947[环境科学与工程—安全科学]