基于多属性群决策的油田承包商安全风险综合评价方法  

Study on the Risk Assessment of Oilfield Contractors Based on Multi-attribute Group Decision Making

作　　者：陆兴[1] 兰明菊[1] 章玲[1] LU Xing;LAN Mingju;ZHANG Ling(Fengcheng Oilfield Operation Area,PetroChina Xinjiang Oilfield Company,Karamay,Xinjiang 834000,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油新疆油田分公司风城油田作业区

出　　处：《钻采工艺》2023年第3期180-184,共5页Drilling & Production Technology

基　　金：四川省科技区域创新合作项目“克拉玛依市科技管理综合服务平台建设与示范”(编号:2020YFQ0015)。

摘　　要：油田承包商安全风险评价问题已成为确保油田发展的重要环节,如何科学客观地评价承包商存在的各类风险问题,是实现事前安全风险管控的先决条件。油田承包商安全风险综合评价属于多层次多目标多人决策问题,是多属性群决策模型的典型应用场景。针对当前多属性群决策理论研究中,主客观赋权法存在数学模型复杂、计算量大和反复调整参数等问题,首先使用熵权法,得到属性的客观权重;然后应用灰色关联度法调整主观权重;最后基于最小相对熵法准则反映不同权重之间的距离,建立优化模型,求解出集成权重。为多属性群决策提供了一种基于信息熵理论可行的权重集成方法,通过对油田承包商的风险评价的算例分析,验证了该方法的可行性和实用性,为油田生产安全风险事前防控提供了新的思路。The risk assessment of oilfield contractors has become an important link to ensure oilfield development.How to evaluate all kinds of risk problems of contractors scientifically and objectively is the prerequisite for realizing the safety risk control in advance.It is assumed to belong to the multi-level,multi-objective and multi-person decision problem,which is proved as a typical application scenario of multi-attribute group decision making model.A new mathematical model and solution method is proposed for the risk assessment of oilfield contractors based on multi-attribute group decision making.According to the problem of complex mathematical model,large calculation amount and repeated parameter adjustment facing in risk assessment of oilfield contractors,firstly,the entropy weighting method is proposed to obtain the objective weight of attributes.Secondly,the gray correlation method is applied to adjust the subjective weight.Finally,a feasible weight integration mathematical model is proposed in order to solve the problem by using the way of Kullback-Leibler divergence.It provides a practicable weight integration method based on information entropy theory to solve the multi-attribute group decisions making problem.The numerical example has proved its effectiveness in risk assessment of oilfield contractors.It provides a new idea for the prevention and control of oilfield production safety risks in advance.

关 键 词：多属性群决策 油田承包商 安全风险评价 熵权法 相对熵 

分 类 号：TE48[石油与天然气工程—油气田开发工程]