吉林省农村金融发展与第一产业增长的关联性研究——基于面板VAR模型分析  

Research on the Correlation Between Rural Financial Development and Primary Industry Growth in Jilin Province--Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model

作　　者：彭悦 鲁国新 PENG Yue;LU Guoxin

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《吉林金融研究》2023年第5期39-43,共5页Journal of Jilin Financial Research

摘　　要：科技信息时代,深入实施农业农村现代化是一场深刻而长远的经济社会改革,需要借助金融的力量推动第一产业经济增长。本文在论述金融发展影响第一产业经济增长的概念基础上,选择吉林省2010-2020年39个县域的面板数据,使用p-var的实证方法检验了吉林省农村金融发展与县域第一产业经济增长的相互影响。研究结论表明,当县域第一产业增加值作为被解释变量的时候,农村金融发展规模负向作用于第一产业增加值,而农村金融发展效率正向作用于第一产业增加值。同时县域第一产业的增加值与其滞后一阶是正相关的,对农村金融发展有着负的抑制作用。因此,应大力发展金融效率,推进农业现代化建设,促使金融发展和第一产业融合;合理借助金融发展对第一产业的影响,促进城乡之间要素的流通;改善当下金融发展的规模,有效支撑第一产业经济增长。In the age of science and technology information,the in-depth implementation of agricultural and rural modernization is a profound and long-term economic and social reform,and the power of finance is needed to promote the economic growth of the primary industry.Based on the concept of financial development affecting the economic growth of the primary industry,this paper selects the panel data of 39 counties in Jilin Province from 2010 to 2020,and uses the empirical method of p-var to test the interaction between the rural financial development and the economic growth of the primary industry in Jilin Province.The results show that when the value added of county primary industry is the explained variable,the scale of rural financial development negatively affects the value added of primary industry,while the efficiency of rural financial development positively affects the value added of primary industry.At the same time,the added value of county primary industry is positively correlated with its lag of one order,which has a negative inhibitory effect on rural financial development.Therefore,we should vigorously develop financial efficiency,promote agricultural modernization,and promote the integration of financial development and primary industry.Make reasonable use of the influence of financial development on the primary industry to promote the circulation of elements between urban and rural areas;Improve the current scale of financial development,effectively support the economic growth of the primary industry.

关 键 词：农村金融发展 第一产业 p-var 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学]