陕西省煤炭生产的能源投入回报值评价研究  

Study on the evaluation of energy input return value in coal production in Shaanxi Province

作　　者：郭宇轩 蔡林美 Guo Yuxuan;Cai Linmei(School of Management,Xi'an University of Science and Technology,Xi'an 710600,China;School of Economics and Management,Yan'an University,Yan'an 716000,China)

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学管理学院,陕西西安710600 [2]延安大学经济管理学院,陕西延安716000

出　　处：《煤炭经济研究》2023年第4期20-27,共8页Coal Economic Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273206);陕西省哲学社会科学研究专项项目(2022HZ1541);陕西省教育厅项目(19JK0944)。

摘　　要：科学测算陕西省煤炭生产的能源投入回报情况,并对其变化做出合理分析,能够从源头上明确陕西省煤炭生产活动真正对经济社会发展的贡献以及提升空间,从而助力陕西省煤炭产业转型升级。采用能源投入回报值(Energy Return on Energy Investment,简称EROI)方法,建立了陕西省煤炭生产的一、二、三阶EROI评价模型,测算出经Divisia指数修正的陕西省煤炭生产的一、二、三阶EROI值;在此基础上,采用GM(1,1)模型,预测出2021—2025年经Divisia指数修正的陕西煤炭生产的三阶EROI值。研究结果表明:经Divisia指数修正的陕西省煤炭生产的三阶EROI值由2010年的16.78下降至2013年的3.22后趋于平稳,之后一直保持在3左右;2021—2025年经Divisia指数修正的EROI预测值走势平稳,均值为3.93;未来几年陕西省煤炭生产依旧能够为经济社会发展提供超过70%的净能源。最后,结合研究结果,立足陕西省煤炭生产实际,提出对策建议。Scientifically measuring the return on energy input in coal production in Shaanxi Province and making reasonable analysis of its changes can clarify the real contribution of coal production activities in Shaanxi Province to economic and social development and the room for improvement from the source,thus helping the transformation and upgrading of Shaanxi coal industry.The first-order,second-order,third-order EROI evaluation model were established by using the energy return on energy investment(EROI)method.The first-order,second-order,third-order EROI values of coal production in Shaanxi Province were calculated and corrected by the Divisia index.On the basis,GM(1,1)model is used to predict the third-order EROI value of Shaanxi coal production corrected by Divisia index from 2021 to 2025.The result shows that the third order EROI value of coal production in Shaanxi Province,corrected by the Divisia index,decreased from 16.78 in 2010 to 3.22 in 2013 and then stabilized,remaining around 3 thereafter.The EROI predicted value corrected by the Divisa index from 2021 to 2025 shows a stable trend,with an average of 3.93.In the coming years,coal production in Shaanxi Province will still provide over 70%of net energy for economic and social development.Finally,based on the research results and the actual coal production in Shaanxi,countermeasures and suggestions are proposed.

关 键 词：煤炭 净能源 能源投入回报值 陕西省 

分 类 号：F416.21[经济管理—产业经济]