土地储备融资政策变化对地方政府土地出让行为的影响研究  

Impact Analysis of Land Reserve Financing Policy Changes on Local Government Land Leasing Behavior

作　　者：夏方舟[1] 陈伊凝 黄怿 李宇萌 孔彤彤 朱烨煌 XIA Fangzhou;CHEN Yining;HUANG Yi;LI Yumeng;KONG Tongtong;ZHU Yehuang(School of Public Administration and Policy,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China;School of Statistics,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学公共管理学院,北京100872 [2]中国人民大学统计学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2023年第6期30-40,共11页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72074217,72134008);国家社科基金重大项目(21&ZD121)。

摘　　要：研究目的:探究土地储备融资政策“贷转债”和“债转禁”两次改革对地方政府土地出让行为的现实影响,探讨土地储备融资政策的可能改革方向。研究方法:针对2012—2021年70个大中城市的面板数据,开展时间断点回归、随机效应和双向固定效应模型回归分析。研究结果:(1)基于理性选择制度主义和注意力分配理论,构建了土地储备融资政策变化影响地方政府土地出让的理论框架;(2)短期层面,土地储备“贷转债”(-190.579)和“债转禁”(-280.515)变化对土地出让面积具有显著负向影响;(3)长期层面,土地储备“贷转债”负向影响土地出让面积(-0.352),“债转禁”正向影响土地出让均价(0.428)。研究结论:土地储备融资政策变化可能将在各个维度上影响地方政府的土地出让行为,造成未来土地出让面积的持续下降和土地出让均价的持续上升,因而应当审慎衡量地方政府债务风险和发展用地诉求,以“保障公益、适当弹性、引导分配、因地制宜”的思路推进土地储备融资政策改革,保障土地储备项目可持续运作和城市土地市场的健康发展。The purpose of this study is to explore the practical impact of the two reforms of land reserve financing policy of“loan-to-bond”and“debt-to-ban”on the land leasing behavior of local governments,to explore the possible reform direction of land reserve financing policy.The research methods of time break regression,random-effect and twoway fixed-effect model regression analysis are performed on the panel data of 70 large and medium-sized cities from 2012 to 2021.The results are as follows:1)based on rational choice institutionalism and attention allocation theory,the theoretical framework of land reserve financing policy changes affecting local government land leasing behavior is constructed.2)In the short term,the changes of“loan-to-bond”(-190.579)and“debt-to-ban”(-280.515)of land reserve policy have a significant negative impact on the land leasing areas.3)In the long run,land reserve policy of“loan-to-bond”has a negative impact on the land leasing areas(-0.352),and“debt-to-ban”policy has a positive impact on the average land leasing price(0.428).In conclusion,the changes of land reserve financing policy will affect the land supply behavior of local governments in various dimensions,resulting in the continuous decline of land leasing areas and the continuous rise of average prices of land leasing in the future.Therefore,it is necessary to carefully measure the debt risk of local governments and land development demand,and promote the reform of land reserve financing policy with the idea of“safeguarding public welfare,appropriate flexibility,guiding allocation and adapting to local conditions”,to ensure the sustainable operation of land reserve projects and the healthy development of urban land market.

关 键 词：土地储备融资 土地出让 地方政府 政策影响 

分 类 号：F301[经济管理—产业经济]