旅游节庆活动客源市场需求时空演变及影响因素研究——基于百度指数的实证分析  

Spatial and Temporal Evolution Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Source Market Demand for Tourism Festivals-An Empirical Analysis Based on Baidu Index

作　　者：柴寿升[1] 朱新芝 朱尧 Chai Shousheng;Zhu Xinzhi;Zhu Yao(School of Management,Ocean University of China,Qingdao 266100,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学管理学院,青岛266100

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第4期26-36,共11页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社科基金项目“社会公平视阈下我国景区—社区冲突演化机理与治理模式研究”(20BGL160)。

摘　　要：旅游节庆活动是目的地提升吸引力的重要手段,其客源市场出游规律对于区域旅游管理及可持续发展至关重要。以旅游传统节庆“西双版纳泼水节”与现代节庆“青岛国际啤酒节”为双案例,探讨旅游节庆活动客源市场时空演变规律及影响因素的研究发现:旅游节庆活动客源市场出游时间呈现“单峰集聚性”与“生命周期性”,具体分为酝酿期、增长期、爆发期、衰退期、沉寂期5个阶段。节庆前6周到1周为增长期,节庆主会场前1周及举办期为爆发期。空间分布呈现出本地集中性和“由东至西”空间距离衰减规律,热点、次热点区域变化较小。商业发展水平、经济发展水平与人口规模是影响旅游节庆活动客源市场的核心因素。目的地应重点把握旅游节庆的关键时间节点,实现不同类型客源市场差异化营销,开发“深度”文化体验产品。Tourism festivals are the microcosm of destination culture and have gradually become an important means for destinations to enhance their attractiveness.Consumers are the main driving force behind the development of tourism festivals,and their source market patterns are crucial to regional tourism development and management.In this paper,we have studied two tourism festival cases,the“Water Splashing Festival”in Xishuangbanna,Yunnan Province,a Chinese traditional tourism festival,and the“Qingdao International Beer Festival”in Qingdao,Shandong Province,a modern tourism festival,to explore the spatial and temporal development of tourism festival markets and the influencing factors.The study has found that:(1)For tourism festivals,the time scheduled for travelling of tourists from the source market presents“single-peak agglomeration”and“cyclicity”,which is divided into five stages:pre-growth period,growth period,peak period,decline period,and stationary period.The growth period is from 6 weeks.The peak period is 1 week before the festival plus the time when major events of the festival are held.(2)The spatial distribution of the tourism festival market has significant regional clustering characteristics,showing local concentration and“from east to west”spatial distance decay.Guangdong,Jiangsu,Shanghai,and Zhejiang provinces are regions of higher concern,while western Chinese provinces are regions of lower concern.(3)The level of commercial and economic development,and the population size are the main factors influencing the spatial distribution of the tourism festival market.Compared with the influencing factors of the traditional source market of tourism activities,the influence of the social consumption level is significantly enhanced.(4)Modern tourism festival source market conforms to spatial distance decay,traditional tourism festivals ignore the geographical and spatial factors and can attract tourists from long-distance sources.Major public health crisis events have a negative impact on the

关 键 词：旅游节庆活动 客源市场需求 时空演变 百度指数 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理]