中国碳中和发展绩效及其内在驱动力研究  

The Performance of China’s Carbon Neutral Development and the Potential Driving Factors

作　　者：李爱军[1] 张入川 Li Aijun Zhang Ruchuan(The Center for Economic Research,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,P.R.China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济研究院,济南250100

出　　处：《山东大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第4期112-124,共13页Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“多重市场扭曲下中国低碳转型战略研究”(项目编号71873078);山东省“泰山学者”青年专家项目;山东省自然科学基金面上项目“考虑技术异质性下可持续发展绩效测度及影响因素分析”(ZR2019MG020);宣传思想文化青年英才项目“可持续发展视角下中国生态文明战略体系研究”。

摘　　要：针对气候变化和全球变暖问题,党和国家提出了参与和推进全球生态文明建设的战略,明晰了碳达峰和碳中和的“双碳”目标,已成为全球生态文明建设的重要参与者。然而,2021年多个省份出现了“拉闸限电”现象,暴露出一些地方存在诸多认知短板和执行不力等问题。在此背景下,应对中国各个省份的碳中和发展绩效进行定量评估,同时,要区分技术进步因素和效率改进因素对碳中和发展绩效的影响,并对阻碍技术传播的内在驱动因素进一步展开分析。实证结果表明,中国碳中和发展绩效拥有较大的提升空间,并且区域、省际之间依然存在着较为明显的绩效差异;技术进步因素和效率改进因素,均是提升碳中和发展绩效的重要因素,并且可以弥补一些省份在低碳资源上的禀赋劣势;此外,西部地区内部的技术差异,是重要的技术传播障碍。因此,促进区域内部的技术传播和效率改进是提升碳中和发展绩效的有效手段。The Party and the State put forward the strategy to participate in and promote the construction of a global ecological civilization,and to respond to the problems of climate change and global warming.The“dual carbon”goals of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality are proposed with the aim that China is an important participant in the construction of global ecological civilization.In this regard,the Party and the State advocate“making all-around effort to and steadily promoting carbon neutralization”and a series of important arrangements are carried out.They have also issued implementation plans for peaking carbon dioxide emissions in key areas and sectors and a series of supporting and guaranteeing measures,such as clarifying the phased targets of“dual carbon”,proposing an action plan for peaking carbon dioxide emissions,exercising better control over the amount and intensity of energy consumption,especially fossil fuels,and gradually shifting to controlling both the amount and intensity of carbon dioxide emissions.However,some provinces have taken the initiative to ration power supply in 2021,which results in electricity shortage that affects local industrial production and people’s livelihoods.This reveals that not all local implementation is effective.Under such a background,this study develops the BoD(Benefit of the Doubt)model and evaluates the performance of Chinese provinces’carbon neutral development.Meanwhile,this study adopts the decomposition analysis of Malmquist index and Theil coefficient,which distinguishes the impact of technological progress and efficiency improvement on the performance of carbon neutral development.This study also analyzes the main driving forces that hinder technology diffusion.The main findings can be summarized as follows.First,China has achieved an overall improvement in the performance of carbon neutral development during the study period,although further improvement could be made.And there are considerable differences across provinces and regions in efficienc

关 键 词：碳中和发展绩效 优势赋权模型 评估绩效 方向距离函数 泰尔指数 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程] F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]