基于人口老龄化、城市收缩对体育彩票发展的实证探索  

Empirical Exploration on the Development of Sports Lottery Based on Population Aging and Urban Shrinkage

作　　者：李凌[1] 张瑞林 LI Ling;ZHANG Ruilin(Research Centre of Sports Social Science,Jilin Sport University,Changchun 130022,China;College of PE and Sports,Beijing Normal University,Beijing 100875,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林体育学院体育社会科学研究中心,吉林长春130022 [2]北京师范大学体育与运动学院,北京100875

出　　处：《天津体育学院学报》2023年第4期405-411,共7页Journal of Tianjin University of Sport

基　　金：国家社会科学基金重点项目(项目编号:21ATY006)。

摘　　要：人口老龄化是影响城市化进程的重要因素,是城市收缩的表征形式,影响城市经济和产业发展。体育彩票业发展与人口结构、城市规模变化密切相关,在当前城市收缩与人口老龄化日益加剧的背景下,探究城市收缩、人口老龄化对体彩销量的影响关系具有深远的现实意义。基于人口变动热区层面,探析城市收缩与体育彩票终端设备之间的关系,再通过演化推导方式,利用面板数据模型对人口老龄化、体彩STE数量与体彩销量之间的关系进行验证。(1)东北地区体彩STE收缩程度与城市收缩程度具有同向性;长三角地区体彩STE扩张程度与城市扩张程度大致具有同向性,但体彩STE收缩程度与城市收缩程度不具有同向性;珠三角地区体彩STE与城市收缩之间存在异质性,体彩STE整体呈扩张态势,而珠海市逐渐缩减,呈现城市非收缩但体彩STE弱负增长的形态。可见,城市收缩会影响体彩发展,但影响不一定具有同向性。(2)人口老龄化与体彩销量存在显著负相关,体彩STE与体彩销量存在显著正相关。为此,研究构建体彩销量的提升路径,为促进体彩产业发展提供重要的路径导向。The aging of population is an important factor affecting the urbanization process,and it is a symbolic form of urban contraction,which affects the urban economy and industrial development.The development of sports lottery industry is closely related to the changes of population structure and city size.Under the background of the current urban contraction and the increasing aging of population,it is of farreaching practical significance to explore the influence of urban contraction and aging of population on sports lottery sales.Based on the hot spot level of population change,this paper analyzed the relationship between urban contraction and sports lottery terminal equipment,and then verifies the relationship between population aging,the number of sports lottery STE and sports lottery sales by using panel data model through evolutionary deduction.(1)The contraction degree of sports lottery STE in Northeast China is the same as that of cities;The expansion degree of sports lottery STE in the Yangtze River Delta is roughly the same as that of the city,but the contraction degree of sports lottery STE is not the same.There is heterogeneity between sports lottery STE and urban contraction in Pearl River Delta.Sports lottery STE is expanding as a whole,while Zhuhai is gradually shrinking,showing a pattern of non-contraction but weak negative growth of sports lottery STE.It can be seen that urban contraction will affect the development of sports lottery,but the influence may not be the same.(2)There is a significant negative correlation between population aging and sports lottery sales,and there is a significant positive correlation between sports lottery STE and sports lottery sales.Therefore,the research and construction of the promotion path of sports lottery sales can provide an important path guidance for promoting the development of sports lottery industry.

关 键 词：体育彩票销量 城市收缩 人口老龄化 体育彩票终端设备 混合方法 

分 类 号：G80-05[文化科学—运动人体科学]