货币政策不确定性、银行贷款期限结构与金融服务实体经济——来自银行业的证据  

Monetary Policy Uncertainty,Bank Loan Maturity Structure and Financial Services to the Real Economy:Micro Evidence from the Banking Sector

作　　者：李成明 王月含 董志勇[2] Li Chengming;Wang Yuehan;Dong Zhiyong(School of Economics,Minzu University of China;School of Economics,Peking University)

机构地区：[1]中央民族大学经济学院 [2]北京大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2023年第4期5-27,共23页Economic Science

摘　　要：保持货币政策稳定性是稳定市场预期的重要方面,也是新冠疫情冲击下“稳信贷”、“稳投资”与“稳增长”的关键举措。本文采用2007—2020年131家银行面板数据,实证分析了货币政策不确定性对银行贷款期限结构的影响。研究发现,货币政策不确定性能够显著缩短银行贷款期限,其中资产价格下降和银行贷款损失准备金规模增加是重要影响渠道,且对规模较小、流动性资产比例较低、非国有型银行的贷款期限缩短效应更加明显。进一步分析发现,货币政策不确定性降低了贷款投放总规模,导致短期贷款对长期贷款的挤出;此外,货币政策的灵活实施部分抵消了经济衰退对信贷短期化的影响;宽松货币政策也可以缓解不确定性对信贷短期化的负面影响。Maintaining the stability of monetary policy is an important aspect of stabilizing market expectations,and it is also a key measure to ensure stable credit,stable domestic investment and stable growth under the impact of COVID-19.In this paper,the panel data of 131 banks from 2007 to 2020 are used to study the impact of monetary policy uncertainty on the bank loan matu-rity structure.It is found that monetary policy uncertainty significantly shortens bank loan maturi-ty,of which the decline in asset prices and the increase in bank loan loss reserves are its impor-tant influence channels.In the process of heterogeneity analysis,we find that monetary policy uncertainty more obviously shortens bank loan maturity with small scale and proportion of liquid assets and non-state-owned nature.Further analysis shows that the uncertainty of monetary policy reduces the total loan scale,leading to the crowding out of short-term loans to long-term loans.In addition,the flexible implementation of monetary policy has partly offset the impact of the reces-sion on the short loan maturity;and loose monetary policy can also mitigate the negative impact of uncertainty on loan maturity.

关 键 词：货币政策不确定性 银行贷款期限结构 信贷紧缩 金融服务实体经济 

分 类 号：F820[经济管理—财政学] F830