农村家庭动态收入与相对贫困收敛  

Dynamics of Rural Household Income and Relative Poverty Convergence

作　　者：解垩[1] Xie E(School of Economics,Shandong University)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《经济科学》2023年第4期203-222,共20页Economic Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“相对贫困的财税治理研究”(项目编号:72073081);国家自然科学基金项目“内生动力培育阻断返贫的机制构建与路径选择研究”(项目编号:72203126);国家社会科学基金重大项目“解决相对贫困的扶志扶智长效机制研究”(项目编号:20&ZD169)的阶段性成果。

摘　　要：本文基于中国农村家庭五轮微观面板数据,使用相对贫困线标准,首先以家庭收入与资产进行GLM模型回归得到资产指数(或称为结构性收入),之后借用宏观经济理论中的增长收敛俱乐部方法分析结构性收入的动态情况,并使用面板分位数自回归方法研究收入冲击的持续性。结果显示:中国农村结构收入两极分化特征显著;贫困收敛俱乐部数量为5个,约11.6%的家庭陷入了贫困陷阱中;对陷入贫困陷阱的家庭而言,暂时性收入较高家庭受到良性冲击时暂时性收入的持续性最高,暂时性收入较低家庭受到不良冲击时暂时性收入的持续性较低;使用绝对贫困线标准时,陷入动态结构性贫困家庭的比例远小于相对贫困线下的比例,其他结论基本不变。Based on micro-panel data of Chinese rural households,this paper uses the relative poverty line for analyses􀆰Firstly,an asset index or structural income is obtained through regress-ing household per capita income on household assets using a generalized linear model(GLM)􀆰Secondly,this paper analyzes dynamics of the structural income by the method of“growth con-vergence clubs”from global economic theory,and uses the panel quantile autoregression to study the persistence of income shocks􀆰The results show that structural income polarization in China􀆳s rural areas is significant􀆰This paper finds five growth convergence clubs for the household struc-tural income,and 11􀆰6%of households are trapped in the poverty􀆰As for households trapped in the poverty,the persistence of transitory income is the highest when households with high transi-tory income are subject to a positive shock and the persistence is the lowest when households with negative transitory income are subject to a negative shock􀆰When the absolute poverty line(USD 1􀆰9 PPP)is adopted,the proportion of households falling into dynamic structural poverty is much smaller than the proportion below the relative poverty line,and other conclusions remain basically unchanged.

关 键 词：贫困陷阱 贫困收敛俱乐部 结构性收入 暂时性收入 分位数自回归 

分 类 号：F328[经济管理—产业经济]