后疫情时代中国民航运输业发展策略研究  

Study on the Development Strategy of China's Civil Aviation Transportation Industry in the Post-epidemic Era

作　　者：陈柯君 王永刚[1] 刘海斌 马续桐 CHEN Kejun;WANG Yonggang;LIU Haibin;MA Xutong(Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics,Zhengzhou 450046,China)

机构地区：[1]郑州航空工业管理学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《物流科技》2023年第17期77-80,102,共5页Logistics Sci-Tech

基　　金：河南省哲学社会科学规划项目“基于区块链的河南应急物流体系建设路径研究”(2021BJJ099);郑州市软科学研究计划项目“‘疫情’视域下郑州市应急物流体系建设目标与路径研究”(2020RKXF0103);郑州航空工业管理学院研究生课程思政教改项目“课程思政视域下‘知识·能力·价值观’三融合应急物流人才培养研究”(2021YJSJGZX02);郑州航空工业管理学院研究生课程思政示范课程项目“物流系统规划与仿真”(2021YJSKCZX01);郑州航空工业管理学院研究生教育创新计划基金项目“疫情视域下郑州市应急物流体系评价及优化研究”(2022CX19)。

摘　　要：2019年12月以来疫情席卷全球,严重冲击了航空运输业的发展。后疫情时代的到来使民航运输业各项数据正在向疫情前的同期回暖,甚至一些数据有超越的迹象。文章基于我国航空货运的发展现状,建立灰色GM1,1模型,预测我国2023—2027年的航空货运量;同时,分析后疫情时代中国航空货运存在的问题,进一步提出优先发展全货机的运营模式、构建航空参与的多式联运体系、在新基建时代完善航空货运的基础设施建设和完善航空物流人才培养体系等对策,从而更好地推动中国民航运输业发展,为建设交通强国服务。The epidemic that has swept the world since December 2019 has severely impacted the air transport industry.The arrival of the post-epidemic era has caused various data of the civil aviation transportation industry to be rebounding toward the same period before the epidemic,and some data even show signs of surpassing it.This paper establishes a grey GM1,1 model to forecast the air cargo volume in China from 2023 to 2027 based on the current development status of China's air cargo;at the same time,it analyzes the problems of China's air cargo in the post-epidemic era and further proposes to prioritize the development of all-cargo aircraft operation mode,build a multimodal transportation system with airline participation,improve air cargo infrastructure construction in the new infrastructure era and improve air logistics personnel.In order to better promote the development of China's civil aviation transportation industry and serve the construction of a strong transportation country,we propose countermeasures such as improving the infrastructure construction of air cargo in the new infrastructure era and improving the training system of air logistics personnel.

关 键 词：后疫情时代 民航运输业 灰色预测 

分 类 号：F560[经济管理—产业经济]