考虑多重不确定性因素的研发任务分配优化  

Task Allocation Optimization for Development Projects Considering Multiple Uncertainties

作　　者：张西林 林兵[1,2] ZHANG Xi-Lin;LIN Bing(Business School,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China;Modern Logistics and Supply Chain Research Center,Jiangsu Normal University,Xuzhou 221116,China)

机构地区：[1]江苏师范大学商学院,徐州221116 [2]江苏师范大学现代物流与供应链研究中心,徐州221116

出　　处：《计算机系统应用》2023年第7期219-225,共7页Computer Systems & Applications

基　　金：江苏高校哲学社会科学研究项目(2020SJA1034);江苏师范大学博士学位教师科研基金(20XFRS008)。

摘　　要：由于研发项目的复杂性、不确定性、动态性、参研团队差异等因素的影响,难以合理分配研发任务.本文综合考虑参研团队能力的不确定性、研发项目运行过程的不确定性等因素,通过仿真估计研发项目的工期、成本等指标;考虑决策者的心理因素,基于前景理论计算研发工期、研发成本的前景价值;以前景价值作为适应度评价指标,基于NSGA-Ⅲ构建研发任务分配优化算法.算例研究表明,基于NSGA-Ⅲ、NSGA-Ⅱ和MOEA-D构建的优化算法均可有效改进研发任务分配方案,而基于NSGA-Ⅲ构建的算法的优化效果最好.Due to the differences between development teams and the complexity,uncertainty,and dynamics of development projects,it is difficult to reasonably allocate development tasks.Considering the factors such as the uncertain capability of development teams and the uncertain operation process of development projects,the duration and cost of development projects are evaluated through simulation.The psychological factors of decision-makers are taken into account,and the prospect value of development duration and costs is calculated by the prospect theory.After that,the prospect value is taken as the fitness evaluation index,and a task-allocation optimization algorithm is constructed on the basis of NSGA-III.The case study shows that the optimization algorithms based on NSGA-III,NSGA-II,and MOEA-D can all effectively improve the allocation scheme of development tasks,and the optimization based on NSGA-III is the best.

关 键 词：研发项目 任务分配 仿真建模 前景理论 NSGA-Ⅲ 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]