退耕还林(草)工程对中国北方农牧交错带生态系统健康的影响  

Study of the impacts of the Grain for Green Program on Ecosystem Health of the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of North China

作　　者：刘欣[1] 查妮依 王欣言 王维奇 王凯平 张云路[1] LIU Xin;ZHA Niyi;WANG Xinyan;WANG Weiqi;WANG Kaiping;ZHANG Yunlu(School of Landscape Architecture,Beijing Forstry University,Beijing 100083,China)

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学园林学院,北京100083

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第15期6392-6405,共14页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：国家林业局林业标准制修订项目(2022-LY-038)。

摘　　要：生态系统健康是生态环境治理的目标,探究国家级生态修复项目退耕还林(草)工程对中国北方农牧交错带生态系统健康的影响,确定合理的生态环境恢复和资源管理策略,有助于加快生态环境建设、促进区域可持续发展。基于“压力-状态-响应”(PSR)模型,构建起一套包括自然、社会和经济等方面的综合指标体系,评估了2000年、2005年、2010年和2015年中国北方农牧交错带的生态系统健康水平,利用Moran′s I分析退耕还林(草)工程和区域生态系统健康的空间相关性,并从普通最小二乘法、地理加权回归模型、时间加权回归模型和时空地理加权回归模型中,选择最优回归模型,揭示退耕还林还草实施强度变化(△NDVI)对生态系统健康变化(△EHI)的影响机制。结果表明:(1)2000—2015年,中国北方农牧交错带的生态系统健康指数呈现“先下降后上升”的变化趋势,区域整体处于亚健康状态和一般健康状态,健康状况逐渐转好。(2)全局双变量Moran′s I结果显示,在2000—2010年工程的开始和发展阶段,退耕还林(草)工程对生态系统健康呈现正相关影响关系,而2010—2015年间,两者之间变为负相关关系。(3)多种回归模型相比较,GTWR模型表现最优。在2000—2010年间,退耕还林(草)工程对研究区域东北部生态系统健康变化具有显著正向影响,在2010—2015年间,该区域由正向驱动变为负向驱动;中部地区则一直保持正向驱动;西南部地区则呈现“负向驱动—正向驱动—负向驱动”的波动变化情况。Ecosystem health is the goal of ecological environment management.An accurate and objective evaluation of ecosystem health is necessary to improve the regional ecological environment.As a semi-arid ecological transition area,the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of North China connecting the agricultural region in the east with the pastoral area in the west,the ecological environment is sensitive and fragile due to the influence of human activities.Exploring the impact of the national ecological restoration project of the Grain-for-Green program on the ecosystem health of the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of North China,determining the strategies of ecological restoration and resource management,it will contribute to promote regional sustainable development.Therefore,we built a comprehensive system,based on the"pressure-state-response"(PSR)model,including natural,social and economic aspects to assess the ecological health index of the Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of North China in 2000,2005,2010 and 2015.We used Moran′s I to analysis the spatial correlation between the Grain-for-Green program and the regional ecological health.The optimal regression model is selected from the ordinary least squares model(OLS),the geographically weighted regression model(GWR),the temporally weighted regression(TWR),the geographically and temporally weighted regression(GTWR),to reveal the influence of the Grain-for-Green program(△NDVI)on the change in ecological health(△EHI).The running result of optimization showed that:(1)from 2000 to 2015,the ecosystem health index of Agro-Pastoral Ecotone of North China shows a trend of"decreasing and then increasing",and the region is in subhealthy and general health,and the state of ecosystem health is gradually improving.(2)The results of the bivariate spatial autocorrelation analysis(the bivariate Moran′s I)showed that the impact of the Grain-for-Green program on ecological health was positive correlation during the beginning and development stages of the project from 2000 to 2010,while from 2010 to 2015,the

关 键 词：生态系统健康 退耕还林(草) 北方农牧交错带 时空演变 空间相关性 时空地理加权回归 

分 类 号：X826[环境科学与工程—环境工程] X171