气候变化条件下曲纹紫灰蝶在中国的潜在适生区预测  

Prediction of the potential geographical distribution of Chilades pandava in China under climate change

作　　者：张彦静 陈菁 王晨彬 斯琴 谢锐 马方舟 ZHANG Yanjing;CHEN Jing;WANG Chenbin;SI Qin;XIE Rui;MA Fangzhou(Nanjing Institute of Environmental Sciences,Ministry of Ecological Environment,Nanjing 210042,China;College of Plant protection,South China Agricultural University,Guangzhou 510642,China)

机构地区：[1]生态环境部南京环境科学研究所国家环境保护生物安全重点实验室,南京210042 [2]华南农业大学植物保护学院,广州510642

出　　处：《生态学报》2023年第14期5850-5862,共13页Acta Ecologica Sinica

基　　金：重点研发计划项目(2021YFC2600400);生态环境部生物多样性保护专项;全球环境基金(GEF)减少外来入侵物种对中国具有全球重要意义的农业生物多样性和农业生态系统威胁的综合防控体系建设项目海南省外来入侵物种对生物多样性影响的风险评估(FECO/LY2/S/21/267)。

摘　　要：曲纹紫灰蝶(Chilades pandava)是一种以幼虫危害苏铁(Cycas revolute)嫩枝嫩叶的园林害虫,对苏铁的生长繁殖、生产者的经济效益以及城市园林的美观造成严重影响。基于曲纹紫灰蝶和苏铁的现存分布点,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)、ArcGIS、R软件对当前和未来气候条件下曲纹紫灰蝶在中国的潜在适生区分布及当前气候条件下寄主苏铁在中国的潜在适生区分布进行了预测,其中当前气候数据基于1970—2000年的历史数据,未来气候数据(2021—2040年、2041—2060年和2061—2080年)选择第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP6)中中国北京气候中心中等分辨率气候系统模式(BCC⁃CSM2⁃MR)下的3种共享社会经济路径(SSP126(属于低强迫情景),SSP370(属于中等至高等强迫情景),SSP585(属于高强迫情景))。结果表明:(1)模型预测结果非常好,各组模型的受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线下面积(AUC)值均高于0.95,昼夜温差月均值(bio2)、等温性(bio3)、最热季平均温度(bio10)、最湿月份降水量(bio13)是影响曲纹紫灰蝶分布的主导气候因子;(2)当前气候条件下曲纹紫灰蝶的适生区面积占国土面积的29.7%,其中高适生区主要分布于长江以南,如海南、广东、广西、香港地区、江西、湖南、福建、中国台湾、四川东南部、重庆北部、安徽南部、上海、江苏、浙江等区域;(3)曲纹紫灰蝶与其寄主苏铁的适生重叠区占国土面积的25.9%;(4)未来气候变化条件下曲纹紫灰蝶的总适生区面积均比当前气候条件下的总适生区面积大,尤其是山东、河北、河南、天津、北京等高适生区面积扩增明显,其中2061—2080年SSP585情景下的曲纹紫灰蝶总适生面积最大,占国土面积的41.33%,比当前气候条件下预测的多出111.57万km2。构建的MaxEnt模型预测结果可信度高,可以为制定防治曲纹紫灰蝶相关检疫措施以及保护中国苏铁资源提供理论依据。Butterfly,Chilades pandava(Horsfield)is a garden pest whose larvae harm the young leaves of the Sago Palm Cycas revoluta(Thunb).It has a serious impact on the growth and reproduction of Cycas revoluta,the economic prospects of growers,and the beauty of urban gardens.In this study,based on the existing distribution points of Chilades pandava and Cycas revoluta,we used MaxEnt,ArcGIS,and R software to predict the potential geographical distribution of Chilades pandava in China under current and future climate conditions and the potential geographical distribution of Cycas revoluta in China under the current climate condition.The current climate data used here were based on historical data from 1970 to 2000.The future data(2021—2040,2041—2060,and 2061—2080)were derived from three representative concentration pathways(SSP126,SSP370,and SSP585)under BCC-CSM2-MR in CMIP6.The results showed that:(1)the area under the curve(AUC)of the test subject working characteristic(ROC)of each model was higher than 0.95,suggesting that the accuracy of the models was very good.The mean diurnal range(bio2),isothermality(bio3),mean temperature of the warmest quarter(bio10),and precipitation of the wettest month(bio13)were the main climatic factors affecting the potential distribution of Chilades pandava.(2)Under the current climatic conditions,the total areas of suitable habitats of Chilades pandava were found to account for 29.7%of the national land area,and highly suitable habitats were mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River,including Hainan,Guangdong,Guangxi,Hong Kong Region,Jiangxi,Hunan,Fujian,Taiwan,southeast Sichuan,northern Chongqing,southern Anhui,Shanghai,Jiangsu,and Zhejiang.(3)The overlapping suitable areas of Chilades pandava and Cycas revoluta accounted for 25.9%of the national area.(4)Under each of the future climate change scenario,the total suitable area for Chilades pandava growth would be greater than the total suitable area under the current climate conditions.In particular,the total area of highl

关 键 词：曲纹紫灰蝶 最大熵模型(MaxEnt)模型 适生区预测 苏铁 气候变化 

分 类 号：S763.7[农业科学—森林保护学]