银行预期影响企业杠杆率吗?——来自《银行家问卷调查报告》的经验证据  

The Effect of Banking Expectations on Corporate Leverage:Empirical Evidence from"the Bankers'Questionnaire Report"

作　　者：刘淼[1] 王金波 LIU Miao;WANG Jin-bo(Finance School,Jilin University of Finance and Economics,Changchun 130117,China)

机构地区：[1]吉林财经大学金融学院,吉林长春130117

出　　处：《山西大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第4期135-145,共11页Journal of Shanxi University(Philosophy and Social Science Edition)

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目“上市企业技术创新的经济价值研究:指标构建、影响因素与经济后果”(72072067);教育部人文社科一般项目“中国信贷周期的形成机理演进、经济周期关联性及其宏观调控政策选择研究”(21YJA790036)。

摘　　要：不同于已有文献往往忽视商业银行主观属性对企业杠杆率形成的影响,利用中国人民银行发布的《银行家问卷调查报告》数据,选取充分反映银行预期的四个代表性指标,使用主成分分析法构建了银行预期变量,并结合2008年第一季度到2021年第四季度的上市企业面板数据,发现银行预期在统计上显著影响企业杠杆率,表现为银行预期越乐观,企业杠杆率越高。而且,企业成长性、经营现金流和产权性质这三个反映企业偿债水平的企业特征变量会带来银行预期的影响差异。实证结果通过了替代银行预期变量、不同模型估计方法和剔除“去杠杆”政策影响的稳健性检验,拓展了对企业杠杆率形成的理解,启示了合理引导和制度性约束银行预期对增强宏观调控政策有效性的重要性。The existing literatures tend to ignore the influence of the subjective attributes of commercial banks on the formation of corporate leverage.Using the data from"Banker Questionnaire Survey Report"issued by the People's Bank of China,and selecting the four representative indicators that fully reflect bank expectation,this paper con-structs the variables of banking expectation with principal component analysis,and in combination with panel data of listed enterprises from the first quarter of 2008 to the fourth quarter of 2021,it finds that banking expectations have a statistically significant effects on corporate leverage ratio,that is,the more optimistic banking expectations,the higher corporate leverage ratio.Moreover,the three characteristic variables of growth opportunity,cash flow and property right,which reflect the debt paying level of enterprises,will bring about the effect diffecence in bank expec-tations.This paper further tests the robustness of the empirical results by changing banking expectation variable,controlling the impact of"deleveraging"policy and changing estimation methods.The empirical results expand the understanding of the formation of corporate leverage and reveal the importance of reasonable guidance and institu-tional constraints on banking expectations to the enhancement of the effectiveness of macro-control policies.

关 键 词：银行预期 企业杠杆率 资本结构 

分 类 号：F821[经济管理—财政学]