双变量与条件地震重现期理论及应用  

THEORY AND APPLICATION OF BIVARIATE AND CONDITIONAL EARTHQUAKE RETURN PERIODS

作　　者：王晓磊 吕大刚[3] 阎卫东 WANG Xiao-lei;LYU Da-gang;YAN Wei-dong(School of Civil Engineering,Shenyang Jianzhu University,Shenyang,Liaoning 110168,China;Hebei Key Laboratory of Earthquake Disaster Prevention and Risk Assessment,Sanhe,Hebei 065201,China;School of Civil Engineering,Harbin Institute of Technology,Harbin,Heilongjiang 150090,China)

机构地区：[1]沈阳建筑大学土木工程学院,辽宁沈阳110168 [2]河北省地震灾害防御与风险评价重点实验室,河北三河065201 [3]哈尔滨工业大学土木工程学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150090

出　　处：《工程力学》2023年第8期47-58,共12页Engineering Mechanics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51908379);河北省地震灾害防御与风险评价重点实验室开放基金资助项目(FZ213206);辽宁省科技厅科研项目(2019JH2/10300054);沈阳市科技局科研项目(1900329)。

摘　　要：地震重现期是地震工程领域重要概念之一,已被广泛应用于结构抗震设计和评估中。但目前地震重现期概念通常指的是单个地震动强度参数的重现时间,无法体现地震动强度参数联合和条件发生信息。该文提出了双变量地震重现期与条件地震重现期概念,给出了双变量地震重现期与条件地震重现期基本理论,针对算例厂址,进行了向量型和条件型概率地震危险性分析,生成了双变量与条件地震重现期,将双变量和条件地震重现期概念应用于向量型和条件型场地相关谱生成研究中,给出了双变量和条件地震重现期理论和应用研究展望。结果表明:双变量地震重现期与条件地震重现期在单变量地震重现期基础上,包含了强度参数间相关性信息;双变量地震重现期大于或等于两个参数各自单变量地震重现期大小,条件地震重现期是双变量地震重现期和单变量地震重现期之比;双变量重现期曲面和等高线对于不同的强度参数组合结果不同,通常与两个参数间相关性系数和强度参数危险性程度两个因素相关;条件强度参数越小,相同大小预测强度参数的条件地震重现期越大。The earthquake return period is one of the important concepts in earthquake engineering,which has been widely used in seismic analysis and evaluation of structures.Nowadays,the earthquake return period concept is usually based on one intensity measure,which cannot include joint and conditional distribution information of ground motion intensity measures.The concepts of bivariate and conditional earthquake return periods are presented,and the basic theories of bivariate and conditional earthquake return periods are given.For the case site,vector and conditional probabilistic seismic hazard analysis ar"e conducted,and bivariate and conditional earthquake return periods are obtained,which are used for generating vector and conditional sitespecific spectra.Theory and implementation prospects of bivariate and conditional earthquake return periods are given.The results show that bivariate and conditional earthquake return periods include correlation information of intensity measures on basis of single variable earthquake return period;bivariate earthquake return period value is larger than or equal to a ny single variable earthquake return period of two intensity measures,and conditional earthquake return period is the ratio of bivariate earthquake return period over single variable earthquake return period;bivariate return period surfaces and contour lines are different for different combinations of intensity measures,which are usually related to the correlation coefficient of two intensity measures and the hazard level of intensity measures;the smaller the conditional intensity measure,the greater the conditional earthquake return period of the same predicted intensity measure.

关 键 词：双变量地震重现期 条件地震重现期 向量型概率地震危险性分析 条件型概率地震危险性分析 向量型场地相关谱 条件型场地相关谱 

分 类 号：P315.9[天文地球—地震学]