三江平原ET_(0)时空特征及其未来情景下预测研究  

Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Prediction under Future Scenarios of ET_(0)in Sanjiang Plain

作　　者：邢贞相 王红利[1] 王欣蕾 喻熠 段维义 付强 XING Zhenxiang;WANG Hongli;WANG Xinlei;YU Yi;DUAN Weiyi;FU Qiang(School of Water Conservancy and Civil Engineering,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Key Laboratory of High Efficiency Use of Agricultural Water Resources,Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs,Northeast Agricultural University,Harbin 150030,China;Heilongjiang Provincial River and Lake Mayor System Security Center,Harbin 150001,China)

机构地区：[1]东北农业大学水利与土木工程学院,哈尔滨150030 [2]东北农业大学农业农村部农业水资源高效利用重点实验室,哈尔滨150030 [3]黑龙江省河湖长制保障中心,哈尔滨150001

出　　处：《农业机械学报》2023年第6期328-339,共12页Transactions of the Chinese Society for Agricultural Machinery

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51979038、51825901);国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC0406004);黑龙江省自然科学基金项目(E2015024);黑龙江省水文图集修编项目(SWJFS-2018-009)。

摘　　要：参考作物蒸发量(Reference crop evapotranspiration,ET_(0))的预测对作物需水量计算与田间水分管理具有重大意义,可为农业节水和水资源高效利用提供重要的科学依据。基于三江平原6个气象站1961—2010年逐日气象资料,采用Penman-Monteith(P-M)公式计算ET_(0),对历史期(1961—2010年)ET_(0)及相关气象要素的时空特征进行分析;依据美国国家环境预报中心再分析数据以及大气环流模型(GCM)中加拿大CanESM2模式的预报因子日序列的输出数据,采用统计降尺度模型(SDSM)对未来RCP4.5和RCP8.5两种排放情景下的ET_(0)进行预测。结果表明:历史期ET_(0)呈上升趋势,多年年平均气温与ET_(0)趋势相同,而年平均风速、相对湿度和净辐射整体呈下降趋势,空间分布上多年年平均ET_(0)总体表现为中部高于周边、西部高于东部的趋势;模拟精度检验方面,基于CanESM2模式下historical情景模拟的ET_(0)模拟值与P-M公式的ET_(0)计算值进行检验,两者对应率定期+验证期(1961—2005年)的纳什效率系数(NSE)为0.46~0.61,决定系数R2为0.53~0.61,说明SDSM模拟效果较好。未来2011—2100年年内ET_(0)变化中,两种情景下2011—2040年、2041—2070年、2071—2100年3个未来时段月平均日值的变化趋势与历史期基本一致,均似开口向下的抛物线状,且表现为不同程度的上升趋势;未来2011—2100年年际ET_(0)变化中,未来ET_(0)较历史期为上升趋势,RCP4.5情景下3个未来时段较历史期分别增加11.11%、18.70%、20.24%,其中2011—2040年时段多年ET_(0)为较明显上升趋势,2041—2070年、2071—2100年时段总体为较缓下降趋势;RCP8.5情景下3个时段较历史期分别增加13.01%、24.05%、34.46%,3个时段内多年ET_(0)均为上升趋势。研究区未来ET_(0)的升高可能导致水资源短缺问题进一步加剧,研究结果可为研究区水资源优化管理和灌溉制度制定提供科学参考。The prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration(ET_(0))is great significant for crop water requirement calculation and field water management,which can provide an important scientific basis for agricultural water conservation and efficient use of water resources.Based on the day⁃by⁃day meteorological data of six meteorological stations in the Sanjiang Plain from 1961 to 2010,the Penman Monteith formula was used to calculate ET_(0)and analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of ET_(0)and related meteorological elements from 1961 to 2010;based on the NCEP reanalysis data and the output data of the daily series of the CanESM2 forecast factor of the atmospheric circulation model,the statistical downscaling model(SDSM)was used to predict ET_(0)under two emission scenarios,RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.The results showed that the ET_(0)from 1961 to 2010 showed an increasing trend,the multi⁃year annual mean temperature and ET_(0)trend were the same,while the annual mean wind speed,relative humidity and net radiation showed an overall decreasing trend,and the spatial distribution of multi⁃year annual mean ET_(0)showed a general trend that the central part was higher than the periphery,and the western part was higher than the eastern part;in terms of simulation accuracy test,the ET_(0)simulation values of“historical”simulation under CanESM2 model and the calculated values of the P M formula corresponded to the Nash efficiency coefficient(NSE)range of 0.46~0.61 and the coefficient of determination R 2 range of 0.53~0.61 for the regular+validation period(1961-2005),which implied that the SDSM simulation was effective.The trends of the monthly average daily values of ET_(0)in the three future time periods of 2011-2040,2041-2070,and 2071-2100 under the two scenarios in the future 2011-2100 intra⁃annual ET_(0)changes were relatively consistent,all resembling a parabola with a downward opening,with May July significantly higher than the level of the historical period(1961-2010),January April and August slightly higher t

关 键 词：参考作物蒸发量 三江平原 PENMAN-MONTEITH公式 统计降尺度模型(SDSM) 趋势分析 

分 类 号：S274.3[农业科学—农业水土工程]