地方政府自主发债是否有利于提升地区经济发展质量?——基于地方债全面“自发自还”改革的准自然实验分析  

Can Autonomous Debt Issuance by Local Governments Improve the Quality of Economic Development?A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on the“Self-Repayment”Reform of Local Debt

作　　者：洪源[1] 胡慧姣 HONG Yuan;HU Huijiao(School of Economics and Trade,Hunan University)

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410006

出　　处：《金融研究》2023年第5期77-95,共19页Journal of Financial Research

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目(22BJY079)的资助。

摘　　要：本文以地方债全面“自发自还”改革为准自然实验,从规模效应和结构效应两个层面实证分析了地方政府自主发债政策冲击对地区经济发展质量的影响效应。研究发现:第一,地方政府自主发债“开前门”和“堵后门”政策冲击都能对地区经济发展质量产生显著的正向提升影响。第二,从规模效应来看,地方政府自主发债“开前门”政策冲击能增加民生性公共产品有效供给和公共基础设施有效投资,有利于实现地区规模经济。第三,从结构效应来看,地方政府自主发债“堵后门”政策冲击能缓解债务挤出效应和降低土地财政依赖,有利于提高资源配置效率和要素投入效率。以上结论为进一步完善优化地方债的“借、用、管、还”制度体系,更好发挥地方举债融资机制在促进地区经济高质量发展中的作用提供了政策参考。With the official implementation of the new Budget Law in 2015,which clearly stipulates that local governments must raise debt in a“self-issuing and self-repaying”manner,the reform of local government debt management entered a new era.The comprehensive“self-repayment”reform of local debt has changed the way local governments raise debt for finance,with the“open front door”policy allowing them to issue government bonds within limits,and the“block back door”policy curbing their implicit debt,such as interest-bearing liabilities of local financing platforms.Intuitively,the policy shock by local governments'autonomous debt issuance resulting from the reform will facilitate local governments'efforts to raise funds autonomously according to the economic development needs of their region,while simultaneously imposing hard budgetary and market constraints on local government debt raising and improving local governments'performance in the use of debt funds.Especially in the context of China's economy entering a stage of high-quality development,an analysis of the economic effects of the reform is of great practical importance as it can assist in enhancing the promotion of high-quality development of regional economies by ensuring a standardized,safe,and efficient government debt financing mechanism.Using the comprehensive“self-repayment”reform of local government debt as a quasi-natural experiment,we empirically analyze the effect of the reform on the quality of regional economic development.The main findings are as follows.(1)The results of the baseline regression indicate that both the“open front door”and“block back door”policy shocks that form part of the reform of local government autonomous debt issuance have a significant and positive impact on the quality of regional economic development.(2)The results of the mechanism test show that the“open front door”policy shock by local government autonomous debt issuance has a scale effect by increasing the use of debt,the effective supply of l

关 键 词：地方政府自主发债 地区经济发展质量 规模效应 结构效应 

分 类 号：F812.5[经济管理—财政学] F124