通货膨胀全球联动效应及其影响因素——基于经济体内部实现环境的视角  

The Effects of Global Inflation Co-Movement and Its Influential Factors:A Perspective from the Domestic Realized Environment of Economies

作　　者：方彤 尹力博[2] FANG Tong;YIN Li-bo(School of Economics,Shandong University,Jinan 250100,China;School of Finance,Central University of Finance and Economics,Beijing 100081,China)

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院,山东济南250100 [2]中央财经大学金融学院,北京100081

出　　处：《经济体制改革》2023年第4期168-175,共8页Reform of Economic System

基　　金：山东省社会科学规划青年基金项目“国内国际双循环背景下的通货膨胀联动效应与影响因素研究”(22DJJJ14)。

摘　　要：基于贝叶斯动态潜在因子模型,探讨全球65个经济体通货膨胀周期的联动性,从国内实现环境角度探究联动效应的影响因素,并重点分析全球和地区因素对中国通胀周期的影响。研究表明:全球通胀周期波动存在较强的联动性、地区性和国家异质性,其中主要工业国受全球通胀周期因素主导,新兴经济体通胀周期多与地区和国家因素有关;内源性通胀一直是中国通胀周期的主要来源,但国家因素在解释中国通胀周期中的作用逐渐被全球因素取代;对于联动程度的影响因素,一国开放程度和金融发展程度的提高有助于增强一国通胀与全球通胀周期的联动程度,制度质量和技术水平的提升又使得一国通胀周期与全球通胀周期脱钩。研究结果侧面反映了中国输入型通胀的形成原因,为国内国际双循环下的通胀政策制定及输入型通胀治理提供了借鉴和参考。Based on the Bayesian dynamic latent factor model,this paper investigates the inflation comovement among 65 economies,examines the its influential factors from the domestic environment,and emphasizes the impact of global and regional factors on the inflation in China.The empirical results show that there are quite strong global,regional comovement and country-specific heterogeneity in inflations.The comovement of the industrialized economies is mostly driven by the global factor,and the inflation cycles of emerging markets mainly come from the regional and country-specific factors.The inner inflation is always the main source of the inflation in China,but the role of country-specific factor is being replaced by the global and regional factors.With respect to the influential factors of the comovement,openness and financial development can enhance the comovement between the domestic inflation and the global inflation cycles,and regime quality and technological level weaken the inflation comovement.The results reflect the reason of the input inflation in China,and provides evidence and instructions for inflation policies during the double circulations and the post-pandemic period in China.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 全球联动 经济结构特征 动态潜在因子 国内环境 

分 类 号：F202[经济管理—国民经济]