基于斯皮尔曼相关系数和系统惯量的中国电网停电事故趋势预测  

Trend Prediction of Power Blackout Accidents in Chinese Power Grid Based on Spearman’s Correlation Coefficient and System Inertia

作　　者：于群 霍筱东 何剑 李琳 张建新 冯煜尧 YU Qun;HUO Xiaodong;HE Jian;LI Lin;ZHANG Jianxin;FENG Yuyao(College of Electrical Engineering and Automation,Shandong University of Science and Technology,Qingdao 266590,Shandong Province,China;China Electric Power Research Institute,Haidian District,Beijing 100192,China;State Grid Shanghai Municipal Electric Power Company,Pudong New District,Shanghai 200122,China)

机构地区：[1]山东科技大学电气与自动化工程学院,山东省青岛市266590 [2]中国电力科学研究院有限公司,北京市海淀区100192 [3]国网上海市电力公司,上海市浦东新区200122

出　　处：《中国电机工程学报》2023年第14期5372-5380,共9页Proceedings of the CSEE

基　　金：国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(5100-202155482A-0-5-ZN):“基于总体国家安全观的大停电事件全链条演化机理与战略防御框架研究”。

摘　　要：在能源形势紧张和绿色发展的背景下,全球范围内的新能源发电规模在不断扩大。然而近年来国外发生的几起大规模停电事故说明了新能源的广泛接入给电力系统的安全运行带来了新的挑战。与此同时,中国提出“3060”双碳目标和建设以新能源为主的新型电力系统目标,使得电网中新能源装机发展迅猛,导致电力系统惯量水平下降,电网运行的风险水平进一步提高。为更好地认识电网的停电事故和惯量水平之间的关系,该文分析中国电网年均停电事故损失负荷与系统惯性常数之间的相关性。首先,基于斯皮尔曼相关系数对中国电网年均停电事故损失负荷绝对值和相对值与系统惯性常数进行相关性分析。其次,分析随着时间推移,中国电网年均停电事故损失负荷与系统惯性常数两者相关性的变化情况。然后,在宏观层面,预测中国电网未来年均停电事故损失负荷的发展趋势。In the context of the tight energy situation and green development,the scale of renewable energy power generation worldwide is constantly expanding.However,in recent years,several large-scale power blackout accidents occurred abroad show that the wide access of renewable energy brings new challenges to the safe operation of power system.At the same time,Chinese“3060”dual carbon target and the construction of renewable energy based new power system target put forward,the installed capacity of renewable energy in the power grid has developed rapidly,resulting in a decline in the power system inertia level,power grid operation risk level further increased.In order to better understand the relationship between power grid blackouts and inertia levels,this paper analyzes the correlation between the average annual power blackout loss load and system inertia constant in Chinese power grid.Firstly,based on Spearman’s correlation coefficient,the correlation analysis between the absolute and relative values of the average annual power outage loss load of the Chinese power grid and the system inertia constant is carried out.Secondly,it analyzes the changes in the correlation between the average annual loss of power outage accident load of Chinese power grid and the system inertia constant over time.Then,at the macro level,it predicted the development trend of the average annual power outage loss load of Chinese power grid in the future.

关 键 词：电力系统 停电事故 惯性常数 相关性 斯皮尔曼相关系数 趋势预测 

分 类 号：TM732[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]