基于教育-健康调整老年抚养比的中国香港与中国澳门老龄化负担比较研究  

Comparative Study of the Aging Burden in Hong Kong and Macao Based on EHA-OADR

作　　者：薛冬梅 白倩 卞鹰[1,2,3] XUE Dongmei(Institute of Chinese Medical Sciences,University of Macao,Macao,999078,China)

机构地区：[1]澳门大学中华医药研究院,中国澳门999078 [2]澳门大学中药质量研究国家重点实验室,中国澳门999078 [3]澳门大学健康科学学院公共卫生及医药管理学系,中国澳门999078

出　　处：《医学与社会》2023年第8期28-33,共6页Medicine and Society

基　　金：澳门科学技术发展基金资助项目,编号为SKL-QRCM(UM)-2020-2022;澳门大学研究基金资助项目,编号为QRCM-IRG2022-001。

摘　　要：目的:基于教育-健康调整老年抚养比,比较中国香港与中国澳门老龄化负担,为中国香港与中国澳门制定应对人口老龄化负担的政策提供参考。方法:于2022年5-10月收集港澳老年人口、劳动人口、老年抚养比、劳动人口高等教育率及老年人口自评健康结果,计算教育-健康调整老年抚养比,并比较加权教育-健康调整老年抚养比与传统老年抚养比。结果:传统角度下,中国香港老年抚养比高于中国澳门,港澳两地老年抚养比年增长率均在2008年左右达到最低值,中国香港为0%,中国澳门为-2.66%;中国澳门的增速在2011年超越中国香港,二者差距逐年加大,中国澳门的增速在2018年达到8.50%的峰值,中国香港在2020年达到5.56%的峰值。教育-健康调整角度下,中国香港仅OAD_(uh_t)下降了9.4,其他3项均上升;中国澳门的OADR_(h_nt)和OADR_(uh_nt)分别增加了0.4和6.2,OADR_(h_nt)和OADR_(uh_t)分别下降了13.5和15.3。港澳的加权教育-健康调整老年抚养比均小于传统老年抚养比,中国香港的降幅在6.2%-22.5%,中国澳门的降幅在4.4%-16.1%。结论:在教育-健康调整角度下,港澳老龄化负担均下降。两地均应加强高等教育投入,中国香港应寻求可持续的卫生融资及长期护理方案,中国澳门应发展跨境医护服务。Objective:By adopting the education-health adjusted old-age dependency ratio(EHA-OADR),to compare the aging burden in Hong Kong and Macao,so as to provide policy reference for Hong Kong and Macao to cope with the burden of population aging.Methods:The old-age and working-age population,the old-age dependency ratio(OADR),the tertiary education rate of working-age population,and the self-rated health of older people in Hong Kong and Macao were collected from May to October 2022.We then calculated the EHA-OADR and compared the weighted EHA-OADR(WEHA-OADR)with the conventional OADR.Results:From a traditional perspective,Hong Kong's OADR was higher than Macao's.Both Hong Kong and Macao reached their lowest annual growth rates around 2008,with Hong Kong at 0%and Macao at-2.66%;Macao's OADR growth rate surpassed Hong Kong's in 2011,and the gap between them increased year by year,with Macao's growth rate peaking at 8.50%in 2018 and Hong Kong's at 5.56%in 2020.From an education-health adjusted perspective,in Hong Kong,only the OADR _(uh_t) decreased by 9.4,while the other three indicators increased.In Macao,the OADR _(h_nt) and OADR uh_nt rose by 0.4 and 6.2,while the OADR _(h_t) and OADR uh_t dropped by 13.5 and 15.3.In both cities,WEHA-OADRs were smaller than conventional OADRs,with declines ranging from 6.2%to 22.5%in Hong Kong and 4.4%to 16.1%in Macao.Conclusion:From the education-health adjusted perspective,both Hong Kong and Macao exhibit a decrease in population aging burden.Both cities should strengthen investment in higher education,Hong Kong should seek sustainable health financing and long-term care solutions,while Macao needs to develop cross-border medical and care services.

关 键 词：老年健康 老年抚养比 受教育程度 中国香港 中国澳门 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]