消费行为与信贷违约——基于自我调节理论的实证分析  

Consumption Behavior and Credit Default——Empirical Analyses Based on Self⁃Regulation Theory

作　　者：吴越[1] 张颖婕 陆天 徐云杰[4] 孙毅衡 Yue Wu;Yingjie Zhang;Tian Lu;Yunjie Xu;Yiheng Sun(Tencent Technology(Shenzhen)Co.,Ltd;Guanghua School of Management,Peking University;Arizona State University;School of Management,Fudan University)

机构地区：[1]腾讯科技(深圳)有限公司 [2]北京大学光华管理学院 [3]美国亚利桑那州立大学 [4]复旦大学管理学院

出　　处：《经济管理学刊》2023年第2期97-128,共32页Quarterly Journal of Economics and Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(72272003)对本文研究的支持。

摘　　要：在金融科技快速发展的今天,信贷风险是金融行业关注的重心。传统研究在分析用户信贷违约行为时,主要集中于用户一些基本的、静态的信息。结合近年来日益普及的数字化支付交易,本文研究了消费行为与信贷违约的关系。本文首先从自我调节理论出发,对品类级消费倾向的价值进行了理论分析。在该理论的指导下,本文重点关注人们在医疗健康和教育方面的消费行为。通过运用问卷调查和计量经济学方法,本文实证验证了品类级消费倾向对信用风险评估的解释价值。值得一提的是,在实证中,本文发现虽然医疗健康和教育方面的消费频率不高,但对于了解借款人的需求、动态监测和评估其信用状况有很强的指示作用。进一步地,本文考虑了未来导向消费倾向对信贷违约的作用机制,分析了未来导向对用户违约的影响。结果表明,重视未来导向相关产品消费的用户其违约的可能性更低。本文为行为理论指导金融风险管控提供了有价值的思路。With the rapid development of financial technology(i.e.,FinTech)today,credit risk has always been the focus of the financial industry.When analyzing individual users'credit behav-ior or assessing their credit risks,existing studies mainly focus on some basic or static information about users.Combined with the increasing popularity of digital payment transactions in recent years,this paper uncovers the relationship between consumer behavior and credit default.To under-stand the relationship between consumption and credit behavior,inspired by the self-regulation the-ory,we focus on two product categories:health and education.Self-regulation theory suggests that people engage in deviant behaviors due to self-regulation failure.Such failure is rooted in exposure to excessive impulses,as the energy resources in the human body can inhibit only a limited number of impulses.Consequently,failure to control oneself regarding one thing is more likely to be ac-companied by self.regulation failure respecting another thing.A financial credit deviation is a form of self-regulation failure,as it runs counter to one's fulillment of financial obligations and is al-ways caused by overspending and limited savings.Conversely,consumption in health(especially physical exercise and health products)and education(especially books and self-development)may indicate successful self-regulation,because people need to effectively manage and control mo-tivations and behaviors to plan for learning or exercise,in order to improve themselves in positive ways.Therefore,we postulate that the consumption tendencies within these two categories are asso-ciated with people's credit bchavior,which postulates,of course,requires empirical validation.Empirically speaking,we collaborated with Tencent.Recently,in 2020,Tencent released a new consumer loan product,called Fenfu,which allows users to spend money first and then apply for a loan later.With such a loan product,users can enjoy,in effect,a post-payment shopping experi-ence.For those who choose to adopt

关 键 词：信贷违约 自我调节理论 消费倾向 双重差分 未来导向 

分 类 号：C931[经济管理—管理学]