群组仿真驱动的疫情传播风险推演方法——以新冠疫情防控为例  

Crowd Simulation-Based Epidemic Spread Modeling Method-Take the COVID-19 Prevention as an Example

作　　者：王华[1,2] 何艺帆 徐明亮 李超超[1] 薛均晓[1] 李亚飞 张宏坡[1] Wang Hua;He Yifan;Xu Mingliang;Li Chaochao;Xue Junxiao;Li Yafei;Zhang Hongpo(School of Computers and Artificial Intelligence,Zhengzhou University,Zhengzhou 450001;School of Computer and Communication Engineering,Zhengzhou University of Light Industry,Zhengzhou 450001)

机构地区：[1]郑州大学计算机与人工智能学院,郑州450001 [2]郑州轻工业大学计算机与通信工程学院,郑州450001

出　　处：《计算机辅助设计与图形学学报》2023年第6期881-892,共12页Journal of Computer-Aided Design & Computer Graphics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(62072415,62036010,61822701);河南省科技厅新型冠状病毒防控应急攻关专项(201100312000);河南省自然科学基金(202300410496);中国博士后科学基金(2019MM662530).

摘　　要：突发公共卫生事件下,疫情传播风险可以理解为人群流动过程中人员与人员之间直接/间接接触引起的关联人员之间的疫情传播风险.针对现有基于人群流动的疫情传播风险推演方法简化了人员内部流动对疫情扩散的影响,难以直接用于城市精细化管控方案制定的问题,提出一种群组仿真驱动的疫情传播风险推演方法.首先将人群流动造成的疫情传播风险抽象为人群流动和飞沫扩散运动综合作用造成的疫情传播风险;然后采用融合人群运动建模、车流运动建模的群组仿真方法以及飞沫扩散行为建模方法,实现疫情传播风险的仿真推演;最后采用分层级可视化方法对地理环境、飞沫传播、个体人群流动以及疫情传播风险态势等进行三维可视呈现及交互式管控推演.园区级单位版和城市级政府版的新冠疫情防控平台应用实例结果表明,所提方法可以为决策者制定精细化管控方案提供科学指导.The risk of the epidemic spreading in public health emergency can be understood as the epidemic spreading risk among persons when they touch each other during the movement.Existing methods simplify the effect of persons’movement on the risk of the epidemic spreading and cannot give detail advices to decision-makers.In order to address the above problem,this paper introduces a crowd simulation-based epidemic spread modeling method.Firstly,it describes the epidemic spreading as the crowd moving and the droplet transmission.Secondly,it simulates the epidemic spreading using crowd simulations,traffic simulations and droplet transmission simulations.Finally,it gives three-dimensional virtualizations of the geographical environment,droplet transmission,crowd moving,rich situation and so on according to the level of detail method.The example results of the COVID-19 prevention and control platform of the campus-level unit version and the city-level government version show that the method can give detail advices to decision-makers.

关 键 词：疫情传播风险 群组仿真 飞沫扩散 三维可视呈现 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]