基于加权马尔可夫链的建筑业景气测度与预警——以浙江省为例  

Prosperity Measurement and Early Warning of Construction Industry Based on Weighted Markov Chain:Taking Zhejiang Province as an Example

作　　者：薛洁[1] 周千翔 XUE Jie;ZHOU Qianxiang(School of Economics,Hangzhou Dianzi University,Hangzhou 310018,China)

机构地区：[1]杭州电子科技大学经济学院,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《建筑经济》2023年第S01期537-542,共6页Construction Economy

基　　金：浙江省统计科学重点研究项目(22TJZZ17)。

摘　　要：基于2010-2021年数据,筛选建筑业相关指标并划分为先行、一致和滞后指标,利用主成分分析法合成浙江省建筑业景气指数进行分析。同时,使用先行和一致指标构建预警信号系统,最后通过加权马尔可夫链模型对浙江省建筑业的景气运行情况进行预测,希望为建筑业发展情况研判提供参考。Based on the data from 2010 to 2021,this paper screens the relevant indicators of the construction industry and divides them into leading,consistent and lagging indicators,and uses the principal component analysis method to synthesize the construction industry prosperity index of Zhejiang Province for analysis.At the same time,using the leading and consistent indicators to build the early warning signal system,finally through the weighted Markov chain model to forecast the economic operation of the construction industry in Zhejiang Province.This study hopes to provide reference for the development of the constraction industry.

关 键 词：建筑业 景气指数 主成分分析 预警信号系统 加权马尔可夫链 

分 类 号：F426[经济管理—产业经济]