基于多应激源的空管人员人因可靠性分析  

Air traffic controller human reliability analysis based on multi-stressors

作　　者：刘继新[1] 焦杰 刘禹汐 LIU Jixin;JIAO Jie;LIU Yuxi(College of Civil Aviation,Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics,Nanjing 210016,China;Junyao Airlines,Shanghai 201105,China)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106 [2]上海吉祥航空有限公司,上海201105

出　　处：《哈尔滨商业大学学报（自然科学版）》2023年第4期493-501,共9页Journal of Harbin University of Commerce：Natural Sciences Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(No.71971112)。

摘　　要：空中交通管制员应激反应是诱发航空运输不安全事件的重要因素,评估其人因可靠性成为提升空管安全的重要依据.通过分析影响空管人员人因可靠性的多应激源,建立了针对多应激源的空管人员人因可靠性分析模糊故障树模型,并利用从T-S模糊故障树映射到贝叶斯网络的系统可靠性评估方法,评估了空管人员应激激活模糊可能性,逆向追踪各应激源的模糊重要度、状态重要度和后验概率,以此来分析空管人员人因可靠性.结合某地区空管局调研数据进行验证,发现管制员应激被完全激活的模糊可能性为0.03557,与应激源的发生率处于同一数量级,验证了所提方法的有效性,证明了该方法可用于识别导致空管人员应激的关键应激源,有助于进行应激源针对性管理,提高多应激源作用下空管人员人因可靠性.Air traffic controllers′stress response is an important factor inducing air transport unsafe events.Evaluating the reliability of air traffic controllers is an important basis for improving air traffic control safety.In this paper,by analyzing the multiple stressors that affect the human reliability of air traffic controllers,a fuzzy fault tree model for human reliability analysis of air traffic controllers with multiple stressors was established,and a system reliability evaluation method based on mapping from T-S fuzzy fault tree to Bayesian network was used to evaluate the fuzzy possibility of activating the stress of air traffic controllers.The fuzzy importance degree,state importance degree and posterior probability of each stressor were tracked backward to analyze the human reliability of air traffic controllers.Combined with the survey data of a regional air traffic control bureau for verification,it was found that the fuzzy probability of controllers stress to be fully activated is 0.03557,the occurrence rate of stressors in the same order of magnitude,thus verifying the validity of the proposed method.It also proved that the method can be used to identify key stressors triggering controller stress,which is helpful for the management of stressors,and improved the human reliability of air traffic controllers under the effect of multiple stressors.

关 键 词：航空运输 人因可靠性 T-S模糊故障树 空管人员应激 贝叶斯网络 

分 类 号：V325[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]