税收努力对金融发展的影响研究  

Research on the Effect of Tax Efforts on Financial Development

作　　者：刘方[1] LIU Fang(School of Economics and Management,Yunnan Normal University,Kunming 650500,China)

机构地区：[1]云南师范大学经济与管理学院,云南昆明650500

出　　处：《南京审计大学学报》2023年第4期91-101,共11页Journal of Nanjing Audit University

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目(21BGJ043)。

摘　　要：搜集2002—2021年31个省区市的非平衡面板数据,运用LASSO回归测度税收努力,构建非线性计量模型考察税收努力与金融发展的关系。结果发现:税收努力与金融发展存在显著的倒U形关系,而财政缺口对二者关系起负向调节作用,经内生性处理和一系列稳健性检验后仍成立。异质性检验发现,消费税、西部地区、低出口退税率地区的税收努力与金融发展存在明显的倒U形关系,增值税税收努力决定了总税收努力对金融发展的负面影响。因此,在未来推进金融发展的过程中,既要保持适度税收努力,稳定财政缺口,又要规范地方政府行为,合理界定政府与市场的边界,为地方金融发展创造良好环境,助力实体经济高质量发展。This paper establishes the unbalance panel data of 31 provincial-level administrative regions from 2002 to 2021,and sets a nonlinear econometric model to examine the relationship between tax efforts and financial development after using LASSO regression to measure the variable of tax efforts.The result shows that there is a significant inverted U-shaped relationship between tax efforts and financial development,and the fiscal gap has a negative moderating effect on the relationship between them,which is still true after endogeneity treatment and a series of robustness tests.Heterogeneity test shows that there is an obvious inverted U-shaped relationship between tax efforts and financial development in consumption tax,western regions and low export rebate rate regions.VAT tax effort determines the negative impact of total tax efforts on financial development.Therefore,in the process of promoting financial development in the future,we should not only maintain moderate tax efforts and stabilize the fiscal gap,but also regulate the behavior of local governments and reasonably define the boundary between the government and the market,so as to create a favorable environment for local financial development and support the high-quality development of the real economy.

关 键 词：税收努力 金融发展 营改增 LASSO回归 出口退税率 财政缺口 

分 类 号：F812.4[经济管理—财政学]