旅游业发展、经济增长与生态可持续发展——基于西北五省的PVAR模型分析  

Tourism development,economic growth and ecological sustainability—Analysis of PVAR model based on five northwestern provinces

作　　者：于志慧[1] 何昌磊 李想 YU Zhihui;HE Changlei;LI Xiang(School of Finance;China Cooperative Research Institute,Anhui University of Finance and Economics,Bengbu,Anhui 233030,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽财经大学金融学院 [2]安徽财经大学中国合作社研究院,安徽蚌埠233030

出　　处：《福建农林大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2023年第4期87-96,共10页Journal of Fujian Agriculture and Forestry University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)

基　　金：安徽省哲学社会科学规划项目(AHSKY2021D127);安徽财经大学研究生科研创新基金(ACYC2021419)。

摘　　要：基于2003—2019年西北五省的面板数据,通过熵值法测算西北五省的生态可持续发展水平,并采用面板向量自回归模型分析西北五省的旅游业发展、经济增长与生态可持续发展之间的交互关系。研究结果表明:(1)西北五省的经济增长与生态可持续发展之间存在双向负效应,旅游业发展与经济增长、旅游业发展与生态可持续发展之间尚未形成良性互动关系。(2)旅游业发展对经济增长的拉动作用不明显,而经济增长在短期内对旅游业发展则具有促进作用;生态可持续发展在短期内会抑制旅游业发展,但从长期来看这种抑制作用会逐步减弱,而旅游业发展对生态可持续发展的影响较小。(3)西北五省的旅游业发展、经济增长与生态可持续发展均存在自我强化效应。据此提出,应发挥旅游业对经济增长的拉动效应,促使经济增长与生态可持续协调发展,以及打造生态旅游发展模式等,以期推动西北五省实现经济与环境的协同高质量发展。Based on the panel data of five northwestern provinces from 2003 to 2019,this paper uses entropy value method to measure ecological sustainability level.What′s more,a panel vector auto-regressive model is used to analyze the interactive relationship between tourism development,economic growth and ecological sustainability in five northwestern provinces.The results of the study show that there is a two-way negative effect between economic growth and ecological sustainable development in the five provinces of northwest China.But positive interactions between tourism development and economic growth,and between tourism development and ecological sustainable development have not yet been formed.Tourism development does not play a significant role in driving economic growth,while economic growth has a promoting effect on tourism development in the short term.Ecological sustainable development will inhibit tourism development in the short term,but such inhibiting effect will be gradually alleviated in the long term.Tourism development has less impact on ecological sustainable development.Tourism development,economic growth and ecological sustainable development in the five northwestern provinces all have self-reinforcing effects.Accordingly,it is suggested that the driving effect of tourism on economic growth should be brought into play,the coordinated development of economic growth and ecological sustainability should be maintained,an ecotourism development model should be created,in order to promote the synergistic high-quality development of economy and environment in the five northwestern provinces.

关 键 词：旅游业发展 经济增长 生态可持续发展 

分 类 号：F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理] F062.2[经济管理—产业经济]