基于逐步回归分析法的区域性城市旅游需求影响因素研究——以浙江省温州市为例  

Research on Influencing Factors of Regional Urban Tourism Demand Based on Stepwise Regression Analysis Method--TakingWenzhou as an Example

作　　者：项小伟 XIANG Xiao-wei(Zhejiang Industry&Trade Vocational College,Wenzhou 325003,China)

机构地区：[1]浙江工贸职业技术学院,浙江温州325003

出　　处：《浙江工贸职业技术学院学报》2023年第2期52-56,共5页Journal of Zhejiang Industry & Trade Vocational College

基　　金：温州哲学社会科学规划课题“基于文本分析法的温州旅游形象研究”(19wsk160);浙江省社科联研究课题“新型城镇化背景下旅游小城镇建设带动农村劳动力就业研究”(2015B058)。

摘　　要：旅游需求是旅游产业链中基础环节,研究城市旅游需求对于区域性城市旅游产业发展具有重要意义。旅游需求受城市经济发展水平、城市基础设施水平、城市居民受教育程度、城市人口规模等诸多因素影响,本研究采用逐步回归分析的方法,建立线性回归模型,将5大类20项影响因素逐一引入模型,剔除其中偏回归平方和不显著的变量,最终得到影响城市旅游需求线性回归方程。研究表明,城市第三产业发展情况以及城市民航客运量与城市国内旅游人数之间具有正相关性。Tourism demand is the basic link in the tourism industry chain.Studying urban tourism demand is of great significance to the development of regional urban tourism industry.Tourism demand is affected by many factors,such as the level of urban economic development,the level of urban infrastructure,the education level of urban residents,the size of urban population,and so on.This study uses the method of stepwise regression analysis to establish a linear regression model,introduces 20 influencing factors of five categories into the model one by one,removes the variables whose partial regression square sum is not significant,and finally obtains the linear regression equation that affects Urban tourism demand.The research shows that there is a positive correlation between the development of the city's Tertiary sector of the economy and the urban civil aviation passenger volume and the number of domestic tourists in the city.

关 键 词：城市旅游需求 逐步回归分析 影响因素 历史数据 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]