非能源利用及其引起的温室气体排放核算模型研究  

Research on non-energy use and its corresponding greenhouse gas emission accounting models

作　　者：王敏[1] 唐旭[1,2] 李忻颖 马美艳 姜钰卿 丁聿 马志达 任凯鹏 张宝生 WANG Min;TANG Xu;LI Xin-Ying;MA Mei-Yan;JIANG Yu-Qing;DING Yu;MA Zhi-Da;REN Kai-Peng;ZHANG Bao-Sheng(School of Economics and Management,China University of Petroleum-Beijing(CUP),Beijing 102249,China;Research Center of China Oil and Gas Industry Development,Beijing 102249,China;CUP College of Science,China University of Petroleum-Beijing,Beijing 102249,China)

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)经济管理学院,北京102249 [2]中国油气产业发展研究中心,北京102249 [3]中国石油大学(北京)理学院,北京102249

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第4期472-482,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(72174206)。

摘　　要：以大量文献和报告为据,阐述了“非能源利用环节”的内涵,且对国际现有的非能源利用温室气体(GHG)排放量核算模型的核心特征、搭建理念、框架设计原则、发展历程、适用范围和优缺点进行综述和对比,结果表明,IPCC-RA方法可提高非能源利用温室气体排放量的核算效率,IPCC-SA可识别其源项性分布特征;NEAT模型可刻画国际贸易结构对化工产品中碳流动的影响程度;EPA专设模型仅适于美国。IPCC-RA可宏观把控中国非能源利用温室气体排放特征,故基于IPCC-RA核算了中国工业终端部门非能源利用的碳排放与储存量,结果表明,2010—2020年间非能源利用以石油为主,原煤和石脑油对非能碳排放的贡献度高于其他化石燃料。国际既有模型并不能精准描绘我国化工产品贸易结构对非能源利用环节碳流动的作用程度,建议在后续研究中开发出企业层面工艺级别的原料-产品矩阵和非能源利用的本土化碳储存与排放因子,自下向上地搭建符合我国国情的非能源利用温室气体排放量核算模型。Based on a large number of literature and reports,this paper expounds on the connotation of non-energy use link,and summarizes and compares the core characteristics,construction concept,framework design principle,development process,application scope,advantages and disadvantages of different types of non-energy use and its corresponding GHG emissions accounting models caused by them.The results show that the IPCC-RA method can improve the accounting efficiency of non-energy use and its corresponding GHG emissions,and the IPCC-SA method can identify its source term distribution characteristics.The NEAT model can depict the impact of international trade structure on carbon flow in petrochemical products.The EPA-specific model is only for the United States.IPCC-RA can macroscopically control the evolution law of GHG emission corresponding to the energy consumption of raw materials in China and the distribution characteristics of the contribution of different fossil fuels to GHG emission from non-energy use.Therefore,based on IPCC-RA,the carbon emission and carbon storage of energy consumption for non-energy use purposed in China’s industrial sector were calculated.The results show that the energy consumption for non-energy use purposed from 2010 to 2020 was mainly petroleum,and the contribution of raw coal and naphtha to the carbon emission of energy consumption for non-energy use purposed was higher than that of other fossil fuels.The existing international models cannot effectively describe the effect of China’s unique petrochemical product trade structure on the carbon flow in the non-energy use link.It is suggested that in the follow-up study,the raw material energy consumption database of various process categories of different products at the enterprise level and the localized product-raw material matrix should be developed,and the localized fossil fuels consumption for non-energy use purposed and its corresponding GHG emissions accounting and prediction bottom-up model should be built.

关 键 词：非能源利用温室气体(GHG)排放量 IPCC指南法 NEAT模型 原料用能 

分 类 号：X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]