基于实物期权法的航空公司减排投资策略研究  

Research on the investment strategy of airline emission reduction based on real option method

作　　者：陈俣秀[1,2] 王超彬 于剑 CHEN Yu-Xiu;WANG Chao-Bin;YU Jian(College of Transportation Science and Engineering,Civil Aviation University of China,Tianjin 300300,China;Research Center for Environment and Sustainable Development of the China Civil Aviation,Tianjin 300300,China;Civil Aviation Management Institute of China,Beijing 100102,China)

机构地区：[1]中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津300300 [2]中国民航环境与可持续发展研究中心,天津300300 [3]中国民航管理干部学院,北京100102

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第4期483-495,共13页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“碳中和目标下中国民航‘三链’协同脱碳研究”(22BJY020);中国民用航空局安全能力建设项目“ICAO国际航空碳抵消及减排机制(CORSIA)一揽子标准修订及碳减排长期目标政策的研究”(14002500000020J074)。

摘　　要：民航绿色发展是推进中国民航高质量发展的内在要求,是提高我国民航业供给竞争力的重要体现之一。中国民航市场需求潜力巨大,随着市场的恢复,能源消费和二氧化碳排放将刚性增长。在民航业关注的减排技术或措施中,与飞机及发动机技术改进、航班地面与空中运行水平提升以及市场机制等减排措施相比,可持续航空燃油的使用减排潜力巨大,但投资及成本高昂。文章从航空公司的角度出发,采用实物期权方法构建了减排投资价值模型,重点讨论了可持续航空燃油投资策略,包括投资阈值、投资时点、掺混比例、最优投资条件等,分析市场机制、燃油成本等不确定性因素对航空公司减排投资行为的影响,并提出航空公司开展减排投资时需要重点关注的碳排放约束下激励投资的条件以及使用何种掺混比例等问题,为航空公司减排策略、政府相关政策的制定提供一定参考。The green development of civil aviation is the inherent requirement of promoting the high-quality development of China’s civil aviation,and is one of the important manifestations of improving the supply competitiveness of China’s civil aviation industry.China’s civil aviation market has huge demand potential.With the recovery of the market,energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions will grow rigidly.Among the emission reduction technologies or measures concerned by the civil aviation industry,the use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel(SAF)has huge potential for emission reduction compared with the emission reduction measures such as aircraft and engine technology improvement,flight ground and air operation improvement and market mechanism,but the investment and cost are high.From the perspective of airlines,this paper constructs a model of emission reduction investment value using real option method,focuses on SAF investment strategies,including investment threshold,investment time,blending ratio,optimal investment conditions,etc.,and analyzes the impact of market mechanism,fuel cost and other uncertain factors on the emission reduction investment behavior of airlines.It also puts forward the conditions for encouraging investment under carbon emission constraints and the mixing proportion to be used when airlines carry out emission reduction investment,which will provide some reference for the formulation of emission reduction strategies of airlines and relevant government policies.

关 键 词：减排投资 可持续航空燃油(SAF) 碳排放限制 实物期权 民航业 

分 类 号：F562.6[经济管理—产业经济]