海南省房间空调行业温室气体协同减排潜力和效益分析  

Greenhouse gases synergistic mitigation potential and benefits of room air conditioner sector in Hainan province

作　　者：姜鹏南 窦艳伟[2] 白富丽 李一希 赵星辰 张旭[1] 陈子薇 胡建信[1] JIANG Peng-Nan;DOU Yan-Wei;BAI Fu-Li;LI Yi-Xi;ZHAO Xing-Chen;ZHANG Xu;CHEN Zi-Wei;HU Jian-Xin(College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering,Peking University,Beijing 100871,China;China Household Electrical Appliances Association,Beijing 100062,China)

机构地区：[1]北京大学环境科学与工程学院,北京100871 [2]中国家用电器协会,北京100062

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2023年第4期496-507,共12页Climate Change Research

基　　金：能源基金会项目——中国加速减排HFCs战略行动路线研究(G-2106-3297)。

摘　　要：基于建立的需求-排放-成本模型,结合情景分析,评估海南省房间空调行业温室气体协同减排潜力与成本。研究表明,海南省房间空调器行业在氢氟碳化物(HFCs)制冷剂转型的同时推进能效提升,既可大幅度减少直接和间接排放,实现房间空调制冷剂近零排放,同时通过节电获得相对收益。在基加利修正案能效情景与加速转型能效情景中,2021—2060年海南省房间空调器行业可分别累计减排50~62MtCO_(2)-eq和77~94MtCO_(2)-eq,直接减排量占比分别约为30%和55%,平均减排成本分别为-219.3~-219.1元/t和-115.6~-112.8元/t。Based on the established demand-emissions-cost model,combined with scenario analysis,this paper presents an assessment of the potential and cost of synergistic GHG mitigation in the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province.The results show that the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province can significantly reduce both direct and indirect emissions and achieve near-zero emissions by promoting energy efficiency improvements while converting HFCs refrigerants,as well as gain relative benefits through electricity saving.In the Kigali energy efficiency scenario and accelerated transformation energy efficiency scenario,the room air conditioner sector in Hainan province will achieve cumulative emission reductions of 50-62 Mt CO_(2)-eq and 77-94 Mt CO_(2)-eq from 2021 to 2060,with direct emission reductions accounting for about 30%and 55%,and average emission reduction costs of CNY-219.3 to-219.1/t and CNY-115.6 to-112.8/t,respectively.

关 键 词：海南省 房间空调器 碳中和 协同减排 成本效益分析 

分 类 号：TU831[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程] X322[环境科学与工程—环境工程]