“横琴驱动”:旅游容量视角下粤港澳大湾区旅游增长模式探析——以珠海市为例  

Analyzing the Tourism Growth Model of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area From the Perspective of Tourism Capacity:How Did Hengqin New Area Drive Zhuhai’s Tourism Growth?

作　　者：潘云龙 钟颜 傅承哲 PAN Yunlong;ZHONG Yan;FU Chengzhe

机构地区：[1]中共中央党校(国家行政学院)公共管理教研部 [2]华南师范大学政治与公共管理学院 [3]华南师范大学粤港澳大湾区跨域治理与公共政策研究中心

出　　处：《城市观察》2023年第4期16-28,160,161,共15页Urban Insight

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年科学基金项目“粤港澳大湾区青年发展政策的融合效应及其优化策略——基于行为公共政策视角”(72004065);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“粤港澳大湾区治理体系现代化研究”(22JJD810031);广州市哲学社会科学发展“十四五”规划2022年度一般课题“广州服务港澳融入国家发展大局研究——以港澳青年跨境发展政策优化为例”(2022GZYB27)研究成果。

摘　　要：当前,旅游业的恢复与增长受到诸多关注,围绕如何应对旅游容量困境的讨论再度兴起。本研究以珠海市为例,采用香洲区、斗门区、金湾区、横琴新区2012—2022年的旅游空间面板数据,从旅游容量的视角出发,借助自回归、空间自相关、空间自回归等计量模型对横琴新区旅游业发展带来的区域影响进行研究。结果发现,在珠海市旅游业容量逐年趋向饱和的情况下,横琴新区的旅游业发展对邻近区域依然保持着显著的高值集聚效应及正向溢出影响。该结果不仅彰显了横琴新区旅游业以点带面的辐射赋能作用,同时也为“横琴驱动”发展模式提供了实践证据与量化模型。最终,本文提出深耕细作锻造增长新动能、稳步建设环横琴旅游带和以点带面构建旅游发展新格局等政策建议,以期助力粤港澳大湾区旅游业可持续、高质量发展。The recovery and growth of the tourism industry are currently a topic of heated debate,reigniting the topic of how to deal with the dilemma of tourism capacity.This study uses the spatial panel data of the tourism industry from four of Zhuhai’s administrative districts,namely,Xiangzhou,Doumen,Jinwan,as well as Hengqin New Area,to study the regional impacts of the tourism development in Hengqin from the perspective of tourism capacity with the help of econometric models such as autoregression,spatial autocorrelation,and spatial autoregression.Results show that Hengqin’s tourism development maintains a significantly high-value agglomeration effect and a positive spillover effect on neighboring areas when the tourism capacity of Zhuhai tends to be saturated year by year.Such a result not only demonstrates the radiating empowering effect of Hengqin’s tourism development but also provides empirical evidence and a quantitative model.It also puts forward policy suggestions,including forging new growth momentum,building a tourism belt around Hengqin,and constructing a new tourism development pattern starting from one favorite tourist destination,in order to help the sustainable and highquality development of the tourism industry in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area.

关 键 词：粤港澳大湾区 旅游容量 空间效应 旅游增长 世界级旅游目的地 

分 类 号：F592.7[经济管理—旅游管理]