Improvement of the software for modeling the dynamics of epidemics and developing a user-friendly interface  

作　　者：Igor Nesteruk 

机构地区：[1]Institute of Hydromechanics,National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine,Kyiv,Ukraine [2]Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute,Kyiv,Ukraine

出　　处：《Infectious Disease Modelling》2023年第3期806-821,共16页传染病建模（英文）

摘　　要：The challenges humanity is facing due to the Covid-19 pandemic require timely and accurate forecasting of the dynamics of various epidemics to minimize the negative consequences for public health and the economy.One can use a variety of well-known and new mathematical models,taking into account a huge number of factors.However,complex models contain a large number of unknown parameters,the values of which must be determined using a limited number of observations,e.g.,the daily datasets for the accumulated number of cases.Successful experience in modeling the COVID-19 pandemic has shown that it is possible to apply the simplest SIR model,which contains 4 unknown parameters.Application of the original algo-rithm of the model parameter identification for the first waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in China,South Korea,Austria,Italy,Germany,France,Spain has shown its high accuracy in pre-dicting their duration and number of diseases.To simulate different epidemic waves and take into account the incompleteness of statistical data,the generalized SIR model and algorithms for determining the values of its parameters were proposed.The interference of the previous waves,changes in testing levels,quarantine or social behavior require constant monitoring of the epidemic dynamics and performing SIR simulations as often as possible with the use of a user-friendly interface.Such tool will allow predicting the dynamics of any epidemic using the data on the number of diseases over a limited period(e.g.,14 days).It will be possible to predict the daily number of new cases for the country as a whole or for its separate region,to estimate the number of carriers of the infection and the probability of facing such a carrier,as well as to estimate the number of deaths.Results of three SIR simulations of the COVID-19 epidemic wave in Japan in the summer of 2022 are presented and discussed.The predicted accumulated and daily numbers of cases agree with the results of observations,especially for the simulation based on the datasets correspo

关 键 词：COVID-19 pandemic Epidemic waves Epidemic dynamics in Japan Mathematical modeling of infection diseases SIR model Parameter identification Statistical methods 

分 类 号：R563.1[医药卫生—呼吸系统] R181.3[医药卫生—内科学]