新疆冬小麦物候期对气候变化的响应及温度敏感性分析  

Analysis on Temperature Sensitivity and the Response of Winter Wheat Phenology to Climate Change in Xinjiang

作　　者：黄娟 黄健[2] 顾雅文 王曼 谷然 HUANG Juan;HUANG Jian;GU Yawen;WANG Man;GU Ran(Xinjiang Agriculture Network Information Center,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002;Institute of Desert Meteorology,China Meteorological Administration,Urumqi,Urumqi,Xinjiang 830002,China)

机构地区：[1]新疆兴农网信息中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830002 [2]中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,新疆乌鲁木齐830002

出　　处：《贵州农业科学》2023年第8期124-133,共10页Guizhou Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“气候变化对棉铃虫和小麦物候匹配/错配的影响研究”(41775109)。

摘　　要：【目的】探明不同气象因子对冬小麦生育时期的影响,为气候变暖背景下新疆的冬小麦生产提供科学依据。【方法】利用1981—2020年新疆冬麦区9个站点(南疆冬麦区拜城、若羌、和田、于田和喀什5个站点,北疆冬麦区塔城、昌吉、乌苏和伊宁4个站点)的冬小麦生长期逐日气象数据(逐日平均气温、平均最高气温、平均最低气温、平均相对湿度、蒸发量、日照时数),采用T检验法和相关性分析法,研究新疆不同地区冬小麦各生育时期的变化规律。【结果】1981—2020年,塔城、伊宁、乌苏、昌吉、和田、喀什、于田、拜城、若羌的小麦营养生长期日数分别减少36.09 d、21.10 d、20.04 d、27.98 d、15.29 d、11.33 d、11.60 d、25.96 d、21.47 d,生殖生长期日数分别增加11.24 d、5.70 d、9.40 d、3.09 d、11.71 d、3.98 d、2.81 d、0.37 d、2.80 d;营养生长阶段日数在塔城、伊宁、乌苏、拜城、若羌与日平均气温呈正相关关系,生殖生长阶段日数在除乌苏外的站点与日平均气温呈负相关关系;营养生长阶段日数对温度的相对敏感性数值为-0.011 4~0.041 8,平均0.007 6,温度每升高1℃,营养生长阶段日数较其平均日数延长0.76%。生殖生长阶段日数对温度的相对敏感性数值为-0.034~0.001 9,平均-0.016 5,温度每升高1℃,生殖生长阶段日数较其平均日数缩短1.65%。【结论】在气候变暖背景下,小麦营养生长阶段日数缩短较多,不利于干物质积累,对新疆冬小麦的产量形成不利;新疆冬小麦在营养生长阶段对温度的相对敏感性高于生殖生长阶段,冬小麦营养生长阶段日数易受温度变化影响。【Objective】The influence of different meteorological factors on the growth period of winter wheat in Xinjiang was explored,which provided scientific basis for winter wheat production under the background of climate warming.【Method】Based on the daily meteorological data(daily average temperature,average maximum temperature,average minimum temperature,average relative moisture,evaporation and sunshine hours),T test and correlation analysis were used to study the changes of winter wheat in different stations(five stations from Southern Xinjiang,including Baicheng,Ruoqiang,Hetan,Yutian and Kashi,and four stations from Northern Xinjiang,including Tacheng,Changji,Wusu and Yining)at different growth stages.【Result】From 1981 to 2020,the days of vegetative growth period in Tacheng,Yining,Wusu,Changji,Hetan,Kashi,Yutian,Baicheng and Ruoqiang decreased by 36.09 d,21.10 d,20.04 d,27.98 d,15.29 d,11.33 d,11.60 d,25.96 d and 21.47 d respectively,and the days of reproductive growth period increased by 11.24 d,5.70 d,9.40 d,3.09 d,11.71 d,3.98 d,2.81 d,0.37 d and 2.80 d respectively;The number of days at vegetative growth stage of Tacheng,Yining,Wusu,Baicheng,Ruoqiang had positive correlation with the daily average temperature,while the number of days at reproductive growth stage of the stations except for Wusu had negative correlation with the daily average temperature.The relative sensitivity of the number of days in the vegetative growth stage to temperature varied from-0.0114 to 0.0418,with an average of 0.0076.The number of days increased by 0.76%as every 1℃increased in temperature.The relative sensitivity of the number of days at reproductive growth stage to temperature varied from-0.034 to 0.0019,with an average of-0.0165.The number of days decreased by 1.65%as every 1℃increased in temperature.【Conclusion】Under the background of climate warming,the number of days in the vegetative growth stage was much shorter,which was not conducive to the accumulation of dry matter and the formation of winter wheat y

关 键 词：冬小麦 物候 气象因子 温度敏感性 新疆 

分 类 号：S162.5[农业科学—农业气象学]