合同节水管理项目全生命周期风险评估  

Full Life Cycle Risk Assessment of Water-saving Contract Projects

作　　者：费小霞 李乾 张鹏超 郝阳玲 程文杰 FEI Xiao-xia;LI Qian;ZHANG Peng-chao;HAO Yang-ling;CHENG Wen-jie(Henan Water and Power Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,Henan Province,China;School of Water Conservancy,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou 450046,Henan Province,China;Research Center for Reservoir Resettlement,China Three Gorges University,Yichang 443000,Hubei Province,China;Research Center for Economy of Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River,Chongqing Technology and Business University,Chongqing 400067,China;Linzhou Water Conservancy Bureau,Linzhou 456550,Henan Province,China)

机构地区：[1]河南省水利勘测设计研究有限公司,河南郑州450000 [2]华北水利水电大学水利学院,河南郑州450046 [3]三峡大学水库移民研究中心,湖北宜昌443000 [4]重庆工商大学长江上游经济研究中心,重庆4000673 [5]林州市水利局,河南林州456550

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2023年第8期163-171,共9页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：“后三峡时代库区绿色发展绩效跟踪评估及优化策略研究”国家社会科学基金西部项目(项目编号:20XGL017);国家社会科学基金重大项目(20&ZD095);水库移民研究中心湖北省高校人文社科重点研究基地开放基金项目(2020KF09);重庆工商大学研究生创新型科研项目(yjscxx2021-112-64)。

摘　　要：我国的合同节水项目目前尚处于推广阶段,其面临诸多不确定的风险,在此背景下进行合同节水项目的风险评价具有十分重要的理论及现实意义。通过文献分析法确定合同节水项目全生命周期中的潜在风险,采用多元联系数集对分析法对合同节水项目全生命周期的风险进行评价,得到如下结论:我国的合同节水项目总体风险水平较低,因此很适合推广,但也存在着一些潜在的高风险因素;在控制合同节水项目风险时要重点控制风险水平较高的风险,如信息风险、融资风险和客户风险;同时也要加强对风险水平有上升趋势的风险的控制,如市场竞争风险和通货膨胀风险。最后针对这些风险提出了相应的政策建议。Our country’s water-saving contract projects are still in the promotion stage at present,and they face many uncertain risks.Under this background,the risk assessment of water-saving contract projects has very important theoretical and practical significance.The literature analysis method is used to determine the potential risks in the whole life cycle of water-saving contract projects,and the multi-connection number set is used to evaluate the risk of water-saving contract projects in the whole life cycle.The following conclusions are drawn:our country’s water-saving contract projects.The overall risk level of the project is low,so it is very suitable for promotion,but there are also some potential high-risk factors.When the risk of water-saving contract projects is controlled,it is necessary to focus on controlling risks with high risk levels,such as:information risk,financing risk and customer At the same time,it is necessary to strengthen the control of risks with an upward trend in risk levels,such as market competition risks and inflation risks.Finally,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for these risks.

关 键 词：合同节水 风险评估 集对分析 多元联系数 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]