区域水资源承载力时空分异及驱动因子分析:以安徽省为例  

Analysis of driving factors for spatial-temporal differentiation of regional water resources carrying capacity:Taking Anhui Province as an example

作　　者：何刚[1] 张世玉 鲍珂宇 杨霞[1] HE Gang;ZHANG Shiyu;BAO Keyu;YANG Xia(School of Economics and Management,Anhui University of Science and Technology,Huainan 232001,Anhui,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽理工大学经济与管理学院,安徽淮南232001

出　　处：《水利水电技术（中英文）》2023年第7期88-101,共14页Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(72271005);教育部人文社科规划基金(22YJAZH025);安徽理工大学研究生基金(2022CX2151)。

摘　　要：【目的】研究区域水资源承载力是发现和解决区域水资源问题的重要途径。【方法】基于“驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应”的DPSIR模型,构建安徽省水资源承载力评价指标体系,利用熵权法与变异系数法组合赋权,使用TOPSIS、标准差椭圆、空间自相关法和地理探测器,测算并分析2011—2020年安徽省水资源承载力时空分异特征,探究造成水资源承载力时空异质性的驱动因子。【结果】(1)研究期内,安徽省水资源承载力水平由0.279增加到0.703,等级Ⅳ区域由0个增加到11个,等级Ⅰ区域由8个减少到0个。(2)安徽省水资源承载力空间上呈现“南-中-北”阶梯式递减分布格局,其北部地区水资源承载力增速相对较强,且各地级市水资源承载力的空间聚集性不断弱化。(3)各驱动因子在不同时期对水资源承载力的时空分布影响程度有显著差异,主导驱动因子趋于多元化,但自然禀赋始终是核心因子。任意因子交互作用后,均表现为双因子增强(68.57%)或非线性增强(31.43%)。【结论】整体来看,安徽省水资源承载力水平逐渐提高,为进一步提高水资源承载力,各城市需因地制宜制定发展规划,重点关注影响水资源承载力的主导因子。[Objective]Studying regional water resources carrying capacity is an important way to discover and solve regional water resources problems.Based on the DPSIR model of‘Driving Force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response’,the evaluation index system of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province is constructed.The entropy weight method and the coefficient of variation method are used to combine weights.TOPSIS,standard deviation ellipse,spatial autocorrelation method and geographic detector are used to measure and analyze the spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province from 2011 to 2020,and to explore the driving factors that cause the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of water resources carrying capacity.[Results](1)During the study period,the level of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province increased from 0.279 to 0.703,the grade IV area increased from 0 to 11,and the grade I area decreased from 8 to 0.(2)The spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province presents a‘south-middle-north’ladder-type decreasing distribution pattern.The growth rate of water resources carrying capacity in the northern region is relatively strong,and the spatial aggregation of water resources carrying capacity in prefecture-level cities is weakening.(3)The influence degree of each driving factor on the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources carrying capacity is significantly different in different periods.The dominant driving factors tend to be diversified,but natural endowment is always the core factor.After the interaction of any factor,it shows double factor enhancement(68.57%)or nonlinear enhancement(31.43%).[Conclusion]On the whole,the level of water resources carrying capacity in Anhui Province has gradually increased.In order to further improve the water resources carrying capacity,cities need to formulate development plans according to local conditions,focusing on the dominant factors affecting the wate

关 键 词：水资源承载力 标准差椭圆 空间自相关 地理探测器 驱动因子 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]