室内装修甲醛污染健康效应及经济影响评价  

Health effects and economic losses of formaldehyde pollution in interior decoration

作　　者：曾贤刚[1] 李康玮 王琦 ZENG Xian-gang;LI Kang-wei;WANG Qi(School of Environment and Natural Resources,Renmin University of China,Beijing 100872,China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872

出　　处：《中国环境科学》2023年第8期4370-4381,共12页China Environmental Science

基　　金：中国人民大学“中央高校建设世界一流大学(学科)和特色发展引导专项资金”资助项目(21XNL006)。

摘　　要：基于室内甲醛浓度质量守恒定律,构建包含室内温度、湿度和换气次数等参数的甲醛浓度动态质量平衡模型,运用美国环保署(US EPA)的健康风险评估模型对甲醛污染致癌风险进行评价,在估算装修比例的基础上测算了我国室内装修甲醛污染致癌人数及经济损失,并使用蒙特卡洛模拟进行不确定性与敏感性分析.结果表明:①2020年全国室内装修后甲醛浓度平均值为146.89μg/m^(2),甲醛暴露致癌风险平均值为9.07×10^(-4),两者呈现“北高南低”的空间分布特征,其中北方呈现“冬高春低”的季节分布特征,南方呈现“夏高冬低”的季节分布特征,新疆西部和内蒙古西部装修后甲醛浓度及致癌风险最高.②2020年全国住宅装修比例为14.4%,这导致甲醛污染致癌人数达2548人,占我国新增癌症人数的0.06%,南方甲醛污染致癌人数高于北方,京津冀及周边地区、长三角地区甲醛暴露致癌人数高于其余城市群.③2020年全国室内装修甲醛污染直接造成DALY达到21656人年,经济损失达258.88亿元,占全国GDP的0.026%.④蒙特卡洛模拟表明,中国室内装修甲醛浓度与致癌风险均值与点估计基本保持一致,两者相对误差均保持在5%左右,敏感性分析表明暴露时间、换气次数、甲醛释放速率是影响甲醛暴露健康风险的最重要因素.未来应进一步重视室内装修引起的甲醛致癌风险,居民应主要通过减少在装修环境下的暴露时间,增加室内换气次数和合理调节室内温、湿度上预防甲醛的危害.Based on the mass conservation law of indoor formaldehyde concentration,a dynamic mass balance model of formaldehyde concentration including indoor temperature,humidity and air change times was constructed.The risk of carcinogenesis caused by formaldehyde pollution was evaluated using the health risk assessment model of the United States Environmental Protection Agency(EPA).On the basis of estimating the proportion of decoration,the number of carcinogens caused by formaldehyde pollution from indoor decoration in China and the economic loss were calculated,Monte Carlo simulation was used to analyze the uncertainty and sensitivity.The results show that:①The average formaldehyde concentration after indoor decoration in 2020 was 146.89μg/m^(3),the average carcinogenic risk of formaldehyde exposure was 9.07×10^(-4),the two showed the spatial distribution characteristics of"high in the north and low in the south",in which the north exhibited the seasonal distribution characteristics of"high in winter and low in spring",and the south exhibited the seasonal distribution characteristics of"high in summer and low in winter".The formaldehyde concentration and carcinogenic risk were highest in western Xinjiang and western Inner Mongolia after decoration.②In 2020,the proportion of housing decoration nationwide was 14.4%,which led to 2548people being carcinogenic due to formaldehyde pollution,accounting for 0.06%of the new cancer population in China.The number of people being carcinogenic due to formaldehyde pollution in the south was higher than that in the north.The number of people being carcinogenic due to formaldehyde exposure in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban agglomeration and the Yangtze River Delta were higher than that in other cities.③In 2020,DALY reaching 21656person years and economic loss reaching 25.888billion yuan,which accounted for 0.026% of the national GDP,were directly caused by formaldehyde pollution of indoor decoration in China.④The consistency between the average value and point estimation of for

关 键 词：室内装修 甲醛污染 健康效应 经济损失 

分 类 号：X503[环境科学与工程—环境工程]