基于高铁全生命周期的县域经济发展——以沪昆高铁为例  

County economic development based on the full life cycle of high speed rail:Take Shanghai-Kunming high speed railway as an example

作　　者：尹正 郐浩奇 YIN Zheng;KUAI Haoqi(School of Economics and Management,Anhui Jianzhu University,Hefei 230022,China)

机构地区：[1]安徽建筑大学经济与管理学院,安徽合肥230022

出　　处：《山东交通学院学报》2023年第3期173-182,共10页Journal of Shandong Jiaotong University

基　　金：安徽省教育厅人文社科基地重点项目(SK2019A0644)

摘　　要：为分析高铁全生命周期下的县域经济发展规律,采用固定效应回归与渐进双重差分(difference in differences,DID)相结合的方法,以沪昆高铁为例,根据2008—2020年浙江、江西、湖南、贵州、云南等5个沿线省份县域经济面板数据,分析高铁建设期与运营期对县域经济的影响。研究表明:高铁建设期与运营期分别对县域经济起促进或抑制作用,建设期的福利效应范围为0~120 km,随距高铁线路距离的增大,福利效应逐渐减小,以促进第二产业发展的方式推动县域经济变化;运营期的集聚阴影范围为距中心城市58~316 km,呈∩分布,以加速县域人口迁出的方式影响县域经济发展。To analyze the law of county economic development under the whole life cycle of high speed railway,the method of combining fixed effect regression with progressive difference in differences(DID)is adopted.Taking the Shanghai Kunming high speed railway as an example,based on the economic panel data from 2008 to 2020 of county-level cities in five provinces along the line,including Zhejiang,Jiangxi,Hunan,Guizhou and Yunnan,the impact of high speed railway construction and operation period on county-level economy is analyzed.The research shows that:The construction period and operation period of high speed rail promote or inhibit the county economy respectively;The welfare effect during the construction period ranges from 0 to 120 km,and gradually decreases with the increase of the distance from the high speed rail line,and the county economy changes are facilitated by promoting the development of the secondary industry;During the operation period,the concentrated shadow range is 58 to 316 km away from the central city,distributed like∩,affecting the county economic development by accelerating the migration of the county population.

关 键 词：高铁 全生命周期 县域经济 DID 福利效应 集聚阴影 

分 类 号：U-9[交通运输工程] F532.8[经济管理—产业经济]