青海高原降水相态转换特征及预报指标分析  

Analysis of Precipitation Phase Transition Characteristics and Prediction Indices in Qinghai Plateau

作　　者：李金海 马元仓[2] 管琴[1,2] 黄甜甜 Li Jinhai;Ma Yuancang;Guan Qin;Huang Tiantian(Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation of Qinghai,Xining 811000;Qinghai Meteorological Observatory,Xining 811000)

机构地区：[1]青海省防灾减灾重点实验室,西宁811000 [2]青海省气象台,西宁811000

出　　处：《气象科技进展》2023年第3期22-28,共7页Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology

基　　金：青海省防灾减灾重点实验室开放基金(QFZ-2021-Z04);国家自然科学基金地区项目(62162053)。

摘　　要：基于青海高原50个地面气象观测站点2006—2020年的观测资料,结合ERA-Interim再分析资料,利用线性倾向估计、概率密度分析等方法,揭示青海高原降水相态转换时空分布特征及相态预报指标,并对2021年的观测资料开展检验。结果表明:1)青海高原降水相态转换主要发生在春末夏初及秋季,空间上主要集中在祁连山区及青南地区,这与海拔高度密切相关;2)降水相态与低层温度密切相关,相对于地面的特征温度层(0℃、-5℃层等)高度、地面2 m温度和特征气压层(500 hPa、600 hPa、700 hPa)的温度可作为相态预报指标;3)雨转雪过程与雪转雨过程预报指标有明显差异,雪转雨时地面到0℃层温度垂直递减率大于雨转雪过程;4)检验结果表明,低层及地面2 m温度指标的可用性较好,中高层指标有一定偏差。Using the observation data from 50 ground-based meteorological stations in Qinghai Plateau during 2006—2020 and ERA-Interim reanalysis data,the linear tendency estimation and probability density analysis are used to reveal the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of precipitation phase transition and prediction indices in Qinghai Plateau.Meanwhile,the observation data in 2021 are also verified.The results show that:(1)The spatial-temporal distribution of precipitation phase transition is closely related to altitude.It mainly occurs in late spring,early summer and autumn,concentrated in the Qilian Mountains and Southern Qinghai;(2)Precipitation phase is closely related to the low-level temperature.The height of the characteristic temperature layer(0℃layer,-5℃layer,etc.),which is relative to the ground,T2m and the temperature of the characteristic pressure layer(500 hPa,600 hPa,700 hPa)can be used as the phase prediction indices;(3)The prediction indices of rain-to-snow and snow-to-rain are significantly different,and the temperature lapse rate from ground to 0℃layer of snow-to-rain process is greater than that of rain-to-snow process;(4)The verification results show that the temperature indicators at the lower level and T2m exhibit satisfactory applicability,while there is a certain deviation at the middle and higher levels.

关 键 词：青海高原 降水相态转换 预报指标 温度层结 检验评估 

分 类 号：P457.6[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]