考虑不确定性因素的公共交通疏散情景构建  

Construction of Public Transportation Evacuation Scenario Considering Uncertainty Factors

作　　者：李震 罗年学[1] 赵前胜[1] LI Zhen;LUO Nianxue;ZHAO Qiansheng(School of Geodesy and Geomatics,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430079,China)

机构地区：[1]武汉大学测绘学院,湖北武汉430079

出　　处：《测绘与空间地理信息》2023年第7期14-18,共5页Geomatics & Spatial Information Technology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2017YFC1405300)资助。

摘　　要：人员疏散是应急管理中的重要环节,如何应对人员疏散过程中的不确定性问题是应急疏散中面临的难题。本文提出通过构建疏散情景的方式分析由于疏散人口数量、可调配车辆数量和道路网状态的不确定性导致疏散时间的变化,以“就近疏散”为指导原则,公共汽车为疏散交通工具,在满足现实情况的约束下计算对应情景的人员疏散用时。模拟结果给出了在已有的信息条件下,疏散指定地点所需时间的可能情景,为应急管理者提供基于情景的决策支持。Evacuation plays an important role in the emergency management.How to deal with the uncertainty in the evacuation is a difficult problem.This paper proposes a scenario-based method to analyze the variation of the evacuation time caused by the uncertainty of the number of the evacuating population,available buses and the uncertainty of the status of the road network.In this method,“Nearby evacuation” is the guiding principle,and buses are the evacuation vehicle,and the evacuation time of each scenario is calculated under the constraint of real situation.The simulation results give the possible scenarios of the time required to evacuate the designated place under the existing information conditions,and provide scenario-based decision support for emergency managers.

关 键 词：疏散用时 不确定性 情景构建 路网构建 

分 类 号：P208[天文地球—地图制图学与地理信息工程]