基于风险价值的水资源优化配置研究  

Study on Optimal Allocation of Water Resources Based on Value at Risk

作　　者：宋树成 SONG Shu-cheng(Zhangjiakou Hydrological Survey and Research Center,Zhangjiakou 075000,Hebei,China)

机构地区：[1]河北省张家口水文勘测研究中心,河北张家口075000

出　　处：《水利科技与经济》2023年第8期15-20,共6页Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy

摘　　要：在进行水资源配置时,会受到多方因素的干扰,在降低用水成本的同时,也伴随着一些风险。以5个重要产粮区域为例,引入风险偏好,构建能够优化地下水和地表水配置的模型,分析各地用水成本和水资源配置方案的变化。结果显示,1.74×10^(8)和3.22×10^(8)m^(3)分别为A行政区地下水和地表水的最佳供水量,其最佳配置水量与预测需水量的下限值十分接近,而D行政区地下水和地表水缺量仅在高水平来水时为0,两区域均引入一些外来水,以降低用水成本;C行政区和E行政区地表水缺量较大,地表水开采过度。在低来水水平下,水资源在风险规避水平较低时配置较少,缺水无法满足作物的基本需求,只能通过引入外部水来解决缺水问题,提高了缺水成本;在高来水水平下,风险规避水平的提高可以降低供大于求所造成的成本损失,达到减小成本的目的;在中来水水平下,成本出现先增大后减小的趋势,决策者可参考此规律来调整配水方式,使收益达到最大值。The allocation of water resources will be interfered by many factors.While reducing the cost of water use,there are also some risks.This study takes five important grain-producing regions as examples,introduces risk preference,builds a model that can optimize the allocation of groundwater and surface water,and analyzes the changes of water costs and water resource allocation schemes in different regions.The research results show that 1.74×10^(8) and 3.22×10^(8)m^(3) is the optimal water supply of groundwater and surface water in administrative region A,and its optimal allocation water volume is very close to the lower limit of the predicted water demand.The shortage of groundwater and surface water in administrative region D is only 0 when the water level is high.Both regions have introduced some external water to reduce the water cost;the surface water shortage in administrative region C and administrative region E is large,and the surface water exploitation is excessive.Under the low inflow level,water resources are allocated less when the risk aversion level is low,and water shortage cannot meet the basic needs of crops.The problem of water shortage can only be solved by introducing external water,thus increasing the cost of water shortage;under the high inflow level,the improvement of risk aversion level can reduce the cost loss caused by oversupply and achieve the purpose of reducing costs;at the medium water level,the cost tends to increase first and then decrease.Policymakers can refer to this rule to adjust the water distribution mode to maximize the income.

关 键 词：水资源配置 用水成本 区间两阶段随机规划模型 地下水 

分 类 号：TV213[水利工程—水文学及水资源]