中国种植业碳排放达峰进程初判及脱钩分析  

Peaking process and decoupling analysis of carbon emissions of crop production in China

作　　者：吴昊玥 周蕾 何艳秋 刘璐 马金山[1] 孟越[3] 郑祥江 WU Haoyue;ZHOU Lei;HE Yanqiu;LIU Lu;MA Jinshan;MENG Yue;ZHENG Xiangjiang(School of Life Science and Engineering,Southwest University of Science and Technology,Mianyang 621010,China;College of Management,Sichuan Agricultural University,Chengdu 611130,China;College of Business and Tourism,Sichuan Agricultural University,Dujiangyan 611830,China)

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学生命科学与工程学院,绵阳621010 [2]四川农业大学管理学院,成都611130 [3]四川农业大学商旅学院,都江堰611830

出　　处：《中国生态农业学报（中英文）》2023年第8期1275-1286,共12页Chinese Journal of Eco-Agriculture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目(71704127);四川省农村发展研究中心项目(CR2322);四川省科技计划项目(2022JDTD0022);西南科技大学博士基金(22zx7148)资助。

摘　　要：判断种植业碳达峰进程,可为温室气体减排提供农业领域的数据支撑。考虑农用物资、水稻种植、土壤管理和秸秆燃烧4类排放源,本文对2000—2020年中国30省(市、自治区)种植业碳排放进行核算,分类别、分量级对达峰进程展开初步探索,利用Tapio脱钩指数探讨种植业碳排放与农业产值之间的关系。结果显示:全国种植业碳排放量年均为23326.860万t,在2015年达到峰值26264.777万t,达峰后年均变化率为−1.560%,尚处于平台期。根据达峰进程,可将30省(市、自治区)分为下降期(北京、天津等13地)、平台期(山西、重庆等10地)、达峰期(河南、安徽等7地)。从全国层面来看,种植业碳排放与农业产值的长期关系表现为弱脱钩,短期关系已由弱脱钩转变为强脱钩。就省域层面而言,短期关系自多种类型并存格局演化为强脱钩主导的极化态势。应根据达峰阶段及特点,分区域、分类型制定全局减排策略,加快我国种植业碳排放达峰转降进程。Exploring the peak process of carbon emissions from crop production provides a basis for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions.Previous studies found that carbon emissions from crop production in China reached an inflection point in 2015.Nonetheless,determining whether a peak has been reached is unreliable without verifying the specific peaking process using statistical approaches.To better understand the peaking process,this study calculated the carbon emissions from crop production in 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2020,considering four carbon sources:agricultural materials,rice paddies,soil management,and straw burning.The peak carbon emissions process was then explored at the national and provincial levels.The Tapio decoupling index was used to verify the relationship between carbon emissions and economic output.The results showed that:(1)The total carbon emissions from crop production in China had an annual average of 233.269 Mt,increasing from 200.020 Mt to 242.819 Mt during the study period,peaking at 262.648 Mt in 2015.The average annual rate of change after reaching the peak was−1.560%,indicating that emissions entered a plateau.Over time,agricultural materials became the primary emissions source(34.6%),whereas soil management contributed the least(11.6%)in 2020.(2)Carbon emissions from crop production were positively correlated with the cropping scale.Only two provinces,Hunan and Henan,had the highest emissions of over 20 Mt;five provinces,such as Hubei and Shandong,had the highest emissions distribution of 15–20 Mt,and other five provinces,like Jiangxi and Sichuan,had the highest emissions ranging from 10 to 15 Mt.In contrast,the highest emissions in 18 provinces were less than 10 Mt,especially in Beijing,Tianjin,and Qinghai,with emission peaks below 1 Mt.As far as the peaking process,the carbon emissions in 13 provinces,including Beijing and Tianjin,were in a state of decline,those of 10 provinces,such as Shanxi and Chongqing,entered a plateau,and those of seven provinces like Henan and Anhui had

关 键 词：种植业碳排放 农业碳排放 碳达峰 农业产值 脱钩分析 

分 类 号：F323[经济管理—产业经济]