基于大气环流特征量和海温的水稻生育期预报模型研究  

Study on Prediction Model of Rice Growth and Development Period Based on Atmospheric Circulation Characteristic Quantity and Sea Surface Temperature

作　　者：郝玲 张佩[2] 任义方[2] 刘瑞翔 颜佳任 HAO Ling;ZHANG Pei;REN Yi-fang;LIU Rui-xiang;YAN Jia-ren(Lianyungang Meteorological Bureau,Lianyungang 222006,China;Jiangsu Meteorological Bureau,Nanjing 210008,China)

机构地区：[1]连云港市气象局,江苏连云港222006 [2]江苏省气象局,江苏南京210008

出　　处：《江西农业学报》2023年第6期133-140,共8页Acta Agriculturae Jiangxi

基　　金：国家重点研发计划课题(2018YFD1000900);2019年国内外作物产量气象预报专项;江苏省气象局科技项目(KM201404)。

摘　　要：基于江苏省8个气象观测站历年水稻生育期的观测资料,根据海气相互作用原理以及大气环流特征量能表征天气形势和控制天气条件这一特性,应用最优化因子相关分析技术对环流特征量及海温进行相关普查,从中挑选出一批与水稻生育期相关性显著、稳定性强、因子相互独立、可靠的环流特征量和海温因子作为预报因子,建立了江苏省8个站点水稻主要生育期的回归预测模型。经检验,各个模型的历史拟合效果均较好,通过了α=0.01的显著性检验,为江苏省水稻生育期的中长期预报提供了技术支撑。Based on the observation data of rice growth and development period at 8 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province,according to the principle of air-sea interaction and the characteristic that atmospheric circulation characteristic quantity can characterize the weather situation and control the weather conditions,the circulation characteristic quantity and sea surface temperature(SST)were surveyed by the optimization factor correlation analysis technology,and a batch of circulation characteristics and SST which are correlated with rice development stage,stable,independent and reliable were selected,and the regression prediction model of rice main growth stage at 8 stations in Jiangsu Province was established.After examination,the historical fitting effect of the model is good,and it is passed the significance test of 0.01,which can provide technical support for the medium and long-term prediction of rice development period in Jiangsu Province.

关 键 词：江苏 海温 环流特征量 相关分析 水稻生育期 预报模型 

分 类 号：S511.05[农业科学—作物学]