新余市短时临近预报预警系统研究  

Research on Short-term Proximity Forecast and Early Warning System of Xinyu

作　　者：张捷 肖云 ZHANG Jie;XIAO Yun(Xinyu Meteorological Bureau,338004,Xinyu,Jiangxi,PRC)

机构地区：[1]新余市气象局,江西新余338004

出　　处：《江西科学》2023年第4期724-729,750,共7页Jiangxi Science

基　　金：新余市2022年第一批市级科技计划项目(新余市短时临近监测预报预警系统研发)。

摘　　要：为提高气象灾害的监测、预警能力,守好气象防灾减灾的第一道防线,主要对降水估测及预报、强对流天气短临预报、强对流潜势预报三大方面进行研究,并分别在4种强对流天气实况中检验,结果表明,新余市短时临近预报预警系统使用动态分级Z-R关系进行降水估测,结果较好,与实际发生降水位置和强降水中心基本一致,对于短时强降水、雷暴大风短临预报也有较好的效果,但强对流潜势预报过于依赖模式。In order to improve the monitoring and early warning capabilities of meteorological disasters and maintain the first line of defense for meteorological disaster prevention and reduction,research has been mainly conducted on three aspects,precipitation estimation and prediction,shortterm and imminent forecast of strong convective weather,and prediction of strong convective potential.Tests have been conducted on four types of strong convective weather conditions,and the results show that the short-term and imminent forecast and early warning system in Xinyu city uses the dynamic graded Z-R relationship for precipitation estimation,with good results,It is basically consistent with the actual location and center of heavy precipitation,and has a good effect on short-term strong precipitation,thunderstorms,and strong winds,but the prediction of strong convective potential is too dependent on the model.

关 键 词：强对流 降水估测 雷达回波外推 潜势预报 

分 类 号：P458[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]