地缘政治风险对全球价值链参与的影响——来自全球39个国家及地区的经验证据  

The Impact of Geopolitical Risk on the Global Value Chain Participation——Evidence from 39 Countries and Regions

作　　者：周先平[1] 罗瑞丰 皮永娟 Zhou Xianping;Luo Ruifeng;Pi Yongjuan

机构地区：[1]中南财经政法大学金融学院,武汉430073

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2023年第8期147-166,共20页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：国家社科基金重点项目“全球价值链动态优化与金融稳定研究”(20AJY025),项目负责人:周先平。

摘　　要：百年未有之大变局下,除了经济不确定性,还需高度关注地缘政治不确定性及其影响。基于全球39个国家及地区1993—2018年的面板数据,实证研究了地缘政治风险对全球价值链参与的影响。结果表明,一国地缘政治风险上升会显著降低其在全球价值链的整体参与,具体通过抑制中间品贸易与降低外国直接投资发挥作用,且全球供应链压力降低及参与区域贸易协定会缓释此冲击。异质性分析发现,地缘政治风险对中低创新力国家的作用更强;地缘政治行动影响强于地缘政治威胁。此外,国际制裁对发起国与被制裁国价值链参与的影响不同,贸易制裁与金融制裁分别对被制裁国的后向及前向参与造成了负面冲击。研究结论对维护地缘政治稳定、增强经济体韧性具有理论及现实意义。With profound changes unseen in a century,besides the economic uncertainty,it's es-sential to emphasize the geopolitical risk and its impact.Based on the panel data of 39 countries and re-gions from 1993 to 2018,this paper studies the impact of geopolitical risk on Global Value Chain(GVC)participation.The results show that one country's geopolitical risk significantly reduces its overall CVC participation,by restraining intermediate trades and reducing FDI inflows.Further analysis shows that the global supply chain pressure reduction and regional trade agreements participation could weaken this influ-ence.Heterogeneity analysis proves that the geopolitical risk has a stronger effect on low and medium inno-vation countries.Geopolitical actions exert a larger impact than geopolitical threats.In addition,there are various impacts on the GVC participation of sanctioning countries and sanctioned countries.Trade sanc-tions and financial sanctions impede sanctioned countries'backward and forward GVC participation re-spectively.The conclusions are theoretically and practically important for the country to maintain the geo-political stability and enhance the economy resilience.

关 键 词：地缘政治风险 全球价值链参与 国际制裁 跨国面板数据 

分 类 号：F831[经济管理—金融学]