贸易政策不确定性对粮食安全的影响——基于全球93个国家数据的实证分析  

Impact of Trade Policy Uncertainty on Food Security——Empirical Analysis Based on Data from 93 Countries Around the World

作　　者：王卫才 张守夫 Wang Weicai;Zhang Shoufu

机构地区：[1]山西大学马克思主义学院,太原030000 [2]许昌学院外国语学院,河南许昌461000

出　　处：《经济问题探索》2023年第8期167-178,共12页Inquiry Into Economic Issues

基　　金：河南省科技攻关项目“基于生态系统服务网理论的南水北调中线工程水源地乡村生态规划方法与技术研究”(212102310225)。

摘　　要：基于全球93个国家2001—2020年面板数据,采用动态面板回归模型与中介效应模型,实证考察贸易政策不确定性与粮食安全间的内在联系。研究显示:贸易政策不确定性下降对粮食安全具有明显正向影响,并对粮食安全的供给支柱、获取支柱、稳定支柱、利用支柱均发挥显著正向作用;中介效应检验发现,农产品市场开放度、农业科技创新能力在贸易政策不确定性影响粮食安全过程中发挥显著正向中介作用;异质性分析结果表明,贸易政策不确定性下降对低收入国家、中等收入国家粮食安全及其四大支柱的影响程度均超过高等收入国家。对此,提出加速构筑新发展格局、实施贸易救济常态化举措、聚焦农业科技创新成果的政策建议,以期为中国改善粮食安全状况提供理论与实践引导。Based on the panel data of 93 countries from 2001 to 2020,this paper uses the dynamic panel regression model and the mediating effect model to empirically examine the internal relationship be-tween trade policy uncertainty and food security.The research shows that the decline of trade policy uncer-tainty has a significant positive impact on food security,and plays a significant positive role in the supply pillar,acquisition pillar,stability pillar and utilization pillar of food security.The mediating effect test shows that the market openness of agricultural products and the innovation ability of agricultural science and technology play a significant positive mediating role in the process of trade policy uncertainty affecting food security.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the impact of declining trade policy uncertainty on food security and its four pillars in low-income countries and middle-income countries is greater than that in high-income countries.In this regard,it is proposed to accelerate the construction of a new de-velopment pattern,implement the normalization measures of trade relief,and focus on the achievements of agricultural scientific and technological innovation,in order to provide theoretical and practical guidance for China to improvefood security.

关 键 词：贸易政策不确定性 粮食安全 农产品市场开放度 农业科技创新能力 

分 类 号：F326.1[经济管理—产业经济]