新冠疫情对江西省流感时空流行特征的影响分析  

Analysis of the impact of COVID-19 on temporal and spatial epidemic characteristics of influenza,Jiangxi

作　　者：傅伟杰[1] 胡茂红[2] 章承锋[1] 方继[1] FU Wei-jie;HU Mao-hong;ZHANG Cheng-feng;FANG Ji(Jiangxi Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention Institute of Infectious Diseases,Nanchang,Jiangxi 330029,China;不详)

机构地区：[1]江西省疾病预防控制中心传染病防制所,江西南昌330029 [2]南昌市疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《现代预防医学》2023年第14期2683-2688,共6页Modern Preventive Medicine

基　　金：江西省科技厅重点研发计划-一般项目(20203BBGL73162);江西省卫生健康委指导性项目(202211686)。

摘　　要：目的分析新冠疫情流行前后的江西省流感的流行病学特征,探讨新冠疫情对江西省流感流行趋势和空间聚集模式的影响,为流感的风险研判、监测预警和科学防控提供依据。方法收集整理录2016—2021年江西省流感病例发病数据,计算全局和局部莫兰指数统计量,采用χ^(2)检验和空间自相关检验。结果2016—2019年江西省各设区市报告发病数呈上升趋势,2020—2021年逐渐下降,均出现明显的冬春季发病高峰;2020—2021年度南昌市、萍乡市、九江市、鹰潭市、吉安市及宜春市流感发病率上升,而景德镇市、新余市、赣州市、抚州市及上饶市有所降低;发病人群年龄以15岁以下人群居多,所占比例在60%以上,人群分类以散居儿童、农民、学生和托幼儿童为主,与2020—2021年相比,幼托儿童(χ^(2)=103.449,P<0.05)、散居儿童(χ^(2)=84.458,P<0.05)构成比有所上升,农民构成比有所下降(χ^(2)=378.001,P<0.05),变化差异均有统计学意义;2016—2021年各年度江西省流感发病率全局空间自相关分析Z值均大于1.96,均有统计学意义(P<0.05),2018年全局空间自相关指数(Moran I=0.304,P<0.05)较2017年(Moran I=0.253,P<0.05)和2016年(Moran I=0.268,P<0.05)增大,而2019—2021年逐年变小(Moran I分别为0.208、0.158、0.149,P<0.05);高高聚集区由新冠前最高8个降为的新冠疫情后的4个,且高高聚集区由赣南地区演变成南昌地区。结论新冠防控措施对流感发病水平和时空流行聚集模式变化具有重要影响,江西省流感发病率明显下降,发病人群年龄和职业构成比均有较大变化,流感发病率呈现较明显的空间相关性和聚集性,空间聚集性呈现先上升后下降的特点。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of influenza in Jiangxi Province before and after the epidemic of novel coronavirus(COVID-19),and to explore the influence of novel coronavirus on the epidemic trend and spatial aggregation model of influenza in Jiangxi Province,so as to provide the basis for risk research,surveillance,early warning,scientific prevention and control of influenza.Methods The data of influenza cases in Jiangxi Province from 2016 to 2021 were collected and recorded,and the global and local Moran index statistics were calculated.Chi-square test and spatial autocorrelation test were used.Results The number of reported cases in all districted cities in Jiangxi Province increased from 2016 to 2019,and gradually decreased from 2020 to 2021,with an obvious peak in winter and spring.From 2020 to 2021,the incidence of influenza increased in Nanchang,Pingxiang,Jiujiang,Yingtan,Ji’an and Yichun,while decreased in Jingdezhen,Xinyu,Ganzhou,Fuzhou and Shangrao.The majority of the patients were under 15 years old,accounting for more than 60%,with diaspora children,farmers,students and nursery children accounted for the highest proportion.Compared with the previous four years,the composition ratio of children in nursery care(χ^(2)=103.449,P<0.05)and scattered children(χ^(2)=84.458,P<0.05)increased from 2020 to 2021,while that of farmers decreased,with statistically significant differences(P<0.05).The global spatial autocorrelation index of influenza incidence in Jiangxi Province from 2016 to 2021 was greater than 1.96,with statistical significance(P<0.05).The global spatial autocorrelation index in 2018(Moran I=0.304,P<0.05)was higher than that in 2017(Moran I=0.253,P<0.05)and 2016(Moran I=0.268,P<0.05),but decreased year by year from 2019 to 2021(From 2019 to 2021,Moran I was 0.208,0.158 and 0.149 respectively,P<0.05).Meanwhile,Local autocorrelation analysis showed that the number of high concentration areas decreased from 8 before COVID-19 to 4 after COVID-19,and the number of high con

关 键 词：新冠疫情 流感 时空流性特征 影响 

分 类 号：R511.7[医药卫生—内科学]