“双碳”目标下中国油气开采业碳排放影响因素探究  

Influencing factors of carbon emissions in China’s oil and gas exploitation industry under dual carbon goals

作　　者：周淑慧[1] 高翔[1,2] 王军 刘勇[1] ZHOU Shuhui;GAO Xiang;WANG Jun;LIU Yong(PetroChina Planning&Engineering Institute;College of Mechanical and Transportation Engineering,China University of Petroleum(Beijing))

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院,北京市100083 [2]中国石油大学(北京)机械与储运工程学院

出　　处：《油气储运》2023年第7期743-753,共11页Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation

基　　金：中国石油天然气集团公司直属院所基础科学研究和战略储备技术研究项目“能源系统碳中和模拟分析模型研究”,KJ2021-305。

摘　　要：在“双碳”发展战略背景下,石油石化行业的降碳形势严峻,尤其是中国油气开采业能源消耗大,探究油气开采业的发展与碳排放关系及其影响因素具有重要的现实意义。采用Kaya恒等式与广义迪氏指数分解法相结合的方法,对影响油气开采业碳排放量的各类驱动因素进行分解,再利用Tapio脱钩指数模型对碳排放关键影响因素开展脱钩效应分析。将新建模型应用于2010—2020年新疆地区油气开采业碳排放分析中,结果表明:该地区油气开采业投资规模、产出规模、能源消费规模与碳排放呈高度正相关性,排放贡献度分别为61.24%、20.79%及17.97%;投资碳强度、产出碳强度对油气开采系统碳排放具有较强的抑制作用,减排贡献度分别为-58.95%、-20.89%;碳排放与投资规模、产出规模在大多数年份表现为脱钩效应,但目前总体仍表现为扩张性负脱钩。能源安全新战略下的油气行业需全面贯彻落实增储上产要求,重视创新与节能降耗、优化用能结构、推动油气与新能源融合发展是实现油气开采业碳减排最现实、最有效的途径。Under the context of dual carbon strategic development goal,the petroleum and petrochemical industry is confronting with rigorous challenge from carbon reduction.Especially for the oil&gas exploration with large energy consumption in China,it is of practical importance to study the relation of the development of oil&gas exploitation with carbon emissions and its influencing factors.Herein,a combination of Kaya identity and generalized divisia index method(GDIM)was adopted to decompose various driving factors affecting carbon emissions in the oil&gas exploration industry.Then,the Tapio decoupling index model was established to analyze the decoupling effect of key factors influencing carbon emissions.Besides,the new model was used to analyze the carbon emissions in the oil&gas exploration industry in Xinjiang from 2010 to 2020.On this basis,it is concluded that the investment scale,output scale and energy consumption scale of China’s oil and gas exploitation industry are highly positively correlated with carbon emissions,with respective contribution of 61.24%,20.79%and 17.97%to the emissions.Meanwhile,the investment carbon intensity and output carbon intensity have a strong inhibitory effect on carbon emissions of oil&gas exploitation system,with respective contribution of-58.95%and-20.89%to carbon emission reduction.Moreover,the carbon emissions show the decoupling effect from the investment scale and output scale in most years,but it is still an expansionary negative decoupling at present.Under the new strategy pursuing for energy security,the oil&gas industry is seeking for the increase in reserves and production.Hence,the emphasis on innovation,energy saving and consumption reduction,the optimization of energy consumption structure and the integration of oil&gas and new energy are the most realistic and effective ways to achieve carbon emission reduction in the industry.

关 键 词：“双碳”目标 油气开采业 碳排放 影响因素 脱钩效应 

分 类 号：TE832[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]