儿子、房子与票子:独生子女性别对家庭消费的影响  

Son,House and Expenditure:The Influence of the Only Child Sex on Family Consumption

作　　者：赵守国[1] 孙中鹏 ZHAO Shou-guo;SUN Zhong-peng(School of Economics and Management,Northwest University)

机构地区：[1]西北大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《消费经济》2023年第3期78-92,共15页Consumer Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金地区项目(71962033);陕西省哲学社会科学重大理论与现实问题研究项目(2021ZD1003)。

摘　　要：随着性别比逐渐失衡、房价不断高涨,久受传统思想观念影响的中国家庭父母不得不通过压缩家庭消费来为子女未来婚嫁做准备。文章利用2019年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证检验独生子女性别对家庭消费决策的影响。研究发现,独生子家庭的消费支出显著少于独生女家庭,在进行替换被解释变量、采用倾向匹配得分和分位数回归法的稳健性检验以及内生性问题处理后基准回归结论依旧显著成立。异质性分析结果表明,城镇独生子家庭迫于更大的婚姻市场压力会比农村独生子家庭更多地压缩家庭消费;三线城市独生子家庭出于对子女未来发展的考虑以及受高房价、低生活成本的影响会比一二线城市家庭更多地挤出消费支出;性别比失衡越严重、婚姻市场竞争越激烈的地区,独生子家庭挤出的消费越多。机制检验结果表明,子女性别会对家庭住房购置的数量产生影响,随着地区婚姻市场竞争程度的加剧,独生子家庭相较于独生女家庭倾向于购买更多的住房;调节效应检验结果表明,住房数量是子女性别影响家庭消费的重要机制,独生子家庭会随着住房数量的增加挤出家庭消费支出。对此,文章建议缓解性别比失衡问题、坚持“房住不炒”政策、通过影视文娱等媒介输出正确婚嫁观,为缓解我国居民消费不足问题提供思路。The unbalanced sex ratio and soaring house prices have forced parents,who have been influenced by China's traditional ideas for a long time,to make preparations for their children's future marriage by reducing household consumption.Based on the data of China Household Financial Survey(CHFS)in 2019,this paper empirically tests the influence of children's gender on household consumption decisions.The study found that the consumption expenditure of the only-child family was less than that of the only-child family,which still supported the above conclusion after the substitution of the explained variables,the tendency matching score,the robustness test of quantile regression and the endogeneity treatment.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that urban one-child families will reduce household consumption more than rural one-child families due to the greater pressure of marriage market.Families with only child in third-tier cities will squeeze out more consumer spending than those in first-tier and second-tier cities due to the consideration of their children's future development and the impact of high house prices and low living costs.The more intense the competition in the marriage market,the more the only child family will consume.The results of the mechanism test show that the gender of the children will have an impact on the number of houses in the family.With the intensification of competition in the regional marriage market,the one-child family tends to buy more houses than the one-child family.The one-child family will squeeze out the household consumption expenditure with the increase of the housing quantity.The adjustment effect test shows that the housing quantity is an important influence mechanism.Therefore,the article proposes to alleviate the imbalance of gender ratio,adhere to the"housing without speculation",and export the correct concept of marriage in film and entertainment,in order to provide countermeasures to alleviate the problem of underconsumption of Chinese residents.

关 键 词：子女性别 住房数量 婚姻市场压力 竞争性储蓄 家庭消费 

分 类 号：F063.2[经济管理—政治经济学]