2004-2021年重庆市丙型病毒性肝炎流行特征及预测  

Epidemiological characteristics analysis of hepatitis C in Chongqing from 2004 to 2021 and prediction

作　　者：贺亚萍 吴国辉[1] 张维[1] 林璟 周超[1] HE Yaping;WU Guohui;ZHANG Wei;LIN Jing;ZHOU Chao(Institute for Prevention and Control of STD/AIDS,Chongqing Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400042,China)

机构地区：[1]重庆市疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制所,重庆400042

出　　处：《中华疾病控制杂志》2023年第7期751-755,813,共6页Chinese Journal of Disease Control & Prevention

基　　金：重庆市自然科学基金(cstc2021jcyj-msxmX1171);重庆市科卫联合医学科研(2022GDRC017)。

摘　　要：目的分析重庆市丙型病毒性肝炎(丙肝)流行特征,并预测发病趋势,为丙肝防控工作提供科学参考。方法在中国疾病预防控制信息传染病监测系统中收集2004-2021年现住址为重庆市的丙肝病例资料,分析其时间、人群和地区分布特征,并预测2025年发病率。结果2004-2021年重庆市共报告丙肝病例59663例,报告发病率从2004年的1.64/105上升至2021年的19.10/105,报告发病率年均变化百分比为15.50%(95%CI:12.90%~18.20%)。病例以25~<65岁为主,占病例总数的85.59%,年龄构成从2004年以25~<35岁为主(34.89%)逐渐转变成2021年以45~<55岁为主(39.04%)。病例主要分布在主城区及渝西片区,职业主要为农民(31.23%)、家务及待业(30.72%)。报告病例数居前5位的地区为大足区(3881例)、江北区(3771例)、渝中区(3646例)、江津区(3207例)、沙坪坝区(3113例)。如不采取有效控制措施,预测到2025年重庆市发病率将上升至24.45/105(95%CI:22.24/105~26.66/105)。结论重庆市丙肝疫情呈上升趋势,病例主要为中老年、农民人群,病例主要分布在主城区及渝西片区。如不加强防控,发病率会持续升高,今后应重点针对主城区及渝西片区的中老年、农民人群加强防控。Objective To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of hepatitis C in Chongqing,predict its incidence,and provide scientific reference for prevention and control.Methods Data of hepatitis C cases was collected from the Direct Reporting System of Infectious Disease Information Network in China.We then analyzed the time,groups,and regional distributions,and predicted the incidence rate for 2025.Results From 2004 to 2021,59663 cases of hepatitis C were reported in Chongqing,with the reported incidence rising from 1.64/100000 in 2004 to 19.10/100000 in 2021,exhibiting an average annual percent change rate of 15.50%(95%CI:12.90%-18.20%).The majority of cases were within the 25-<65 age range(85.59%),with the primary age group shifting from 25-<35 years(34.89%)in 2004 to 45-<55 years(39.04%)in 2021.Farmers(31.23%)and the unemployed(30.72%)constituted the major occupational categories.Most cases were reported from the central urban area and western Chongqing,with the top five districts in terms of case numbers being Dazu(3881 cases),Jiangbei(3771 cases),Yuzhong(3646 cases),Jiangjin(3207 cases),and Shapingba(3113 cases).If no effective interventions are implemented,the projected incidence rate would rise to 24.45/100000(95%CI:22.24/100000-26.66/100000)by 2025.Conclusions The incidence of hepatitis C in Chongqing is rising,with the majority of cases being middle-aged and elderly farmers mostly residing in the central urban and western areas.The incidence is projected to continue rising in the absence of effective measures.Therefore,future intervention efforts should target middle-aged and elderly farmers residing in these areas.

关 键 词：丙型病毒性肝炎 流行特征 求和自回归移动平均模型 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]